ER-03 All-Round Geopolitical Risk Assessment: South Africa

Report ID: 9bd86360
Date: 2026-08-25
Classification: Strategic Intelligence — Geopolitical Risk

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```
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FORREAST GEOPOLITICAL RISK SCORE: South Africa — 58.5/100
Dimensions: PEP [39] · Currency [57] · Ownership [84] · Trade [84] · Social Unrest [13] · Sanctions [74]
Risk level: Moderate — ASSESS
Assessment date: 2026-08-25
═══════════════════════════════════════════
```

1. Executive Summary

This assessment evaluates geopolitical risk for South Africa across 6 of 6 dimensions. The composite Forreast Geopolitical Risk Score is 58.5/100 (Moderate — ASSESS).

Dimension	Score	Confidence	Evidence Count	Sources
PEP	39/100	low	42	1
Currency	57/100	low	338	1
Ownership	84/100	moderate	2,005	2
Trade	84/100	moderate	40,761	2
Social Unrest	13/100	low	2	1
Sanctions	74/100	high	52	4

2. PEP & Political Stability

Score: 39/100 | Confidence: low | Evidence: 42 items from 1 source(s)

Source: intel_ofac_sdn (42 records)

{"name": "DOCKRAT, Farhad Ahmed", "type": "individual", "program": "SDGT"}

{"name": "DOCKRAT, Junaid Ismail", "type": "individual", "program": "SDGT"}

{"name": "ONE VISION INVESTMENTS 5 (PTY) LTD.", "type": "-0- ", "program": "IRAN"}

3. Currency & Monetary Risk

Score: 57/100 | Confidence: low | Evidence: 338 items from 1 source(s)

Source: world_bank_indicators (338 records)

{"indicator": "Manufacturing, value added (% of GDP)", "year": 2025, "value": 12.2545108718651, "unit": null}

{"indicator": "Exports of goods and services (current US$)", "year": 2025, "value": 134179428667.706, "unit": null}

{"indicator": "Inflation, consumer prices (annual %)", "year": 2025, "value": 3.20550474112603, "unit": null}

4. Ownership Landscape

Score: 84/100 | Confidence: moderate | Evidence: 2,005 items from 2 source(s)

Source: gleif_entities (2,000 records)

{"name": "TRDX", "status": "ISSUED", "category": "GENERAL"}

{"name": "NINETY ONE ETF SCHEME", "status": "ISSUED", "category": "FUND"}

{"name": "AG CAPITAL WORLDWIDE MACRO FR RETAIL HEDGE FUND", "status": "ISSUED", "category": "FUND"}

Source: corporate_ownership (5 records)

{"company": "Agincourt Health and Socio-Demographic Surveillance System", "parent": "University of the Witwatersrand", "ticker": null, "industry": null}

{"company": "Centre for Curating the Archive", "parent": "University of Cape Town", "ticker": null, "industry": null}

{"company": "SAFRING", "parent": "University of Cape Town", "ticker": null, "industry": null}

5. Trade Flow Analysis

Score: 84/100 | Confidence: moderate | Evidence: 40,761 items from 2 source(s)

Source: un_comtrade_flows (40,118 records)

{"reporter": "South Africa", "partner": "World", "flow": "Import", "hs_desc": null, "value_usd": 17226623589.997, "year": 2024}

{"reporter": "South Africa", "partner": "Germany", "flow": "Export", "hs_desc": "Vehicles; other than railway or tramway rolling stock, and parts and accessories thereof", "value_usd": 3710922368.483, "year": 2024}

{"reporter": "South Africa", "partner": "Germany", "flow": "Import", "hs_desc": "Commodities not specified according to kind", "value_usd": 1789921327.769, "year": 2024}

Source: trade_flows (643 records)

6. Social Unrest & Conflict

Score: 13/100 | Confidence: low | Evidence: 2 items from 1 source(s)

Source: intel_gdelt_articles (2 records)

{"title": "Houthi attacks on shipping return to Red Sea as multiple seafarers killed", "date": "2026-08-17 10:45:00+00:00", "domain": "defenceweb.co.za", "country": "South Africa"}

{"title": "Why AI spoils will pass South Africa by", "date": "2026-08-11 21:15:00+00:00", "domain": "dailymaverick.co.za", "country": "South Africa"}

7. Sanctions Exposure

Score: 74/100 | Confidence: high | Evidence: 52 items from 4 source(s)

Source: intel_ofac_sdn (42 records)

Source: sanctions_list (1 records)

Source: au_sanctions (2 records)

Source: uk_ofsi_sanctions (7 records)

8. Composite Risk Score & Heat Map

Composite Score: 58.5/100
Risk Band: Moderate — ASSESS

```
PEP ███████ 39/100
Currency███████████ 57/100
Owner ████████████████ 84/100
Trade ████████████████ 84/100
Unrest ██ 13/100
Sanct. ██████████████ 74/100
```

9. Data Gaps & Confidence Statement

PEP: Single source only — confidence capped at Low.

Currency: Single source only — confidence capped at Low.

Social Unrest: Single source only — confidence capped at Low.

10. Falsification Conditions

Any dimension with <3 source disciplines has confidence capped at Low.

If a data source has not refreshed within its declared update_frequency, it is marked stale and excluded.

If two independent sources contradict on a dimension, the dimension is held unscored until reconciled.

ACLED armed conflict data is at 0 rows (API blocked) — Social Unrest dimension relies on GDELT + signals only.

This report is falsified if South Africa's risk profile changes materially before next assessment.

11. Methodology Appendix

Per ER-03 Methodology War Room (2026-08-17):

Six dimensions scored 0-100 with evidence from mapped data sources

Composite = weighted average (equal weights by default)

Confidence: High (≥3 sources), Moderate (2), Low (1)

Risk bands: Low (0-20), Elevated (21-40), Moderate (41-60), High (61-80), Critical (81-100)

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