ER-03 All-Round Geopolitical Risk Assessment: Ukraine

Report ID: 8ff9452e
Date: 2026-08-25
Classification: Strategic Intelligence — Geopolitical Risk

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```
═══════════════════════════════════════════
FORREAST GEOPOLITICAL RISK SCORE: Ukraine — 61.2/100
Dimensions: PEP [67] · Currency [57] · Ownership [27] · Trade [63] · Social Unrest [53] · Sanctions [100]
Risk level: High — ACT
Assessment date: 2026-08-25
═══════════════════════════════════════════
```

1. Executive Summary

This assessment evaluates geopolitical risk for Ukraine across 6 of 6 dimensions. The composite Forreast Geopolitical Risk Score is 61.2/100 (High — ACT).

Dimension	Score	Confidence	Evidence Count	Sources
PEP	67/100	low	1,289	1
Currency	57/100	low	338	1
Ownership	27/100	low	11	1
Trade	63/100	low	643	1
Social Unrest	53/100	moderate	29	2
Sanctions	100/100	high	2,810	7

2. PEP & Political Stability

Score: 67/100 | Confidence: low | Evidence: 1,289 items from 1 source(s)

Source: intel_ofac_sdn (1,289 records)

{"name": "PUBLIC JOINT STOCK COMPANY GAZPROM NEFT", "type": "-0- ", "program": "UKRAINE-EO13662] [RUSSIA-EO14024"}

{"name": "BEREZIN, Fedor", "type": "individual", "program": "UKRAINE-EO13660"}

{"name": "ZAKHARCHENKO, Alexander", "type": "individual", "program": "UKRAINE-EO13660"}

3. Currency & Monetary Risk

Score: 57/100 | Confidence: low | Evidence: 338 items from 1 source(s)

Source: world_bank_indicators (338 records)

{"indicator": "Manufacturing, value added (% of GDP)", "year": 2025, "value": 8.31869736566018, "unit": null}

{"indicator": "Exports of goods and services (current US$)", "year": 2025, "value": 54272867488.1444, "unit": null}

{"indicator": "Inflation, consumer prices (annual %)", "year": 2025, "value": 12.7303341026903, "unit": null}

4. Ownership Landscape

Score: 27/100 | Confidence: low | Evidence: 11 items from 1 source(s)

Source: corporate_ownership (11 records)

{"company": "Q135206882", "parent": "UN Women", "ticker": null, "industry": null}

{"company": "Heinrich-B\u00f6ll-Stiftung Ukraine", "parent": "Heinrich B\u00f6ll Foundation", "ticker": null, "industry": null}

{"company": "U-Report", "parent": "UNICEF", "ticker": null, "industry": null}

5. Trade Flow Analysis

Score: 63/100 | Confidence: low | Evidence: 643 items from 1 source(s)

Source: trade_flows (643 records)

6. Social Unrest & Conflict

Score: 53/100 | Confidence: moderate | Evidence: 29 items from 2 source(s)

Source: intel_gdelt_articles (20 records)

{"title": "\u0421\u0440\u043e\u0447\u043d\u043e \u043f\u043e\u043a\u0438\u043d\u0443\u0432\u0448\u0438\u0439 \u0420\u043e\u0441\u0441\u0438\u044e \u041d\u0430\u0434\u0435\u0436\u0434\u0438\u043d \u0440\u0430\u0441\u0441\u043a\u0430\u0437\u0430\u043b \u043e \u043f\u0430\u043d\u0438\u043a\u0435 \u0432 \u043e\u043a\u0440\u0443\u0436\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0438 \u041f\u0443\u0442\u0438\u043d\u0430", "date": "2026-08-21 21:00:00+00:00", "domain": "dialog.ua", "country": "Ukraine"}

{"title": "\u0421\u0435\u043d\u0430\u0442 \u0427\u0435\u0445\u0456\u0457 \u043d\u0435 \u043f\u0456\u0434\u0442\u0440\u0438\u043c\u0430\u0432 \u043e\u0431\u043c\u0435\u0436\u0435\u043d\u043d\u044f \u043f\u043e\u0432\u043d\u043e\u0432\u0430\u0436\u0435\u043d\u044c \u043f\u0440\u0435\u0437\u0438\u0434\u0435\u043d\u0442\u0430", "date": "2026-08-20 00:15:00+00:00", "domain": "eurointegration.com.ua", "country": "Ukraine"}

{"title": "\u0413\u043b\u0430\u0432\u0430 \u041c\u0417\u0421 \u041d\u0456\u043c\u0435\u0447\u0447\u0438\u043d\u0438 : \u041c\u0456\u0436\u043d\u0430\u0440\u043e\u0434\u043d\u0438\u0439 \u043a\u0440\u0438\u043c\u0456\u043d\u0430\u043b\u044c\u043d\u0438\u0439 \u0441\u0443\u0434 \u0440\u043e\u0431\u0438\u0442\u044c \u0441\u0432\u0456\u0442 \u043a\u0440\u0430\u0449\u0438\u043c", "date": "2026-08-20 00:15:00+00:00", "domain": "eurointegration.com.ua", "country": "Ukraine"}

Source: signals (9 records)

{"type": "political_geographic", "title": "Russian attacks on Ukraine kill 2 people a day after deadly shopping mall drone strike", "detected_at": "GDELT conflict event: Russian attacks on Ukraine kill 2 people a day after deadly shopping mall drone strike (source: thegazette.com)"}

{"type": "political_geographic", "title": "A warehouse burns near Moscow . In Ukraine , drone crews prepare to strike again", "detected_at": "GDELT conflict event: A warehouse burns near Moscow . In Ukraine , drone crews prepare to strike again (source: reflector.com)"}

{"type": "political_geographic", "title": "Ukraine : Several killed in fresh Russian strikes on Kyiv", "detected_at": "GDELT conflict event: Ukraine : Several killed in fresh Russian strikes on Kyiv (source: dw.com)"}

7. Sanctions Exposure

Score: 100/100 | Confidence: high | Evidence: 2,810 items from 7 source(s)

Source: intel_ofac_sdn (1,289 records)

Source: sanctions_list (2 records)

Source: au_sanctions (115 records)

Source: ca_sanctions (546 records)

Source: ch_sanctions (254 records)

Source: eu_sanctions (269 records)

Source: uk_ofsi_sanctions (335 records)

8. Composite Risk Score & Heat Map

Composite Score: 61.2/100
Risk Band: High — ACT

```
PEP █████████████ 67/100
Currency███████████ 57/100
Owner █████ 27/100
Trade ████████████ 63/100
Unrest ██████████ 53/100
Sanct. ████████████████████ 100/100
```

9. Data Gaps & Confidence Statement

PEP: Single source only — confidence capped at Low.

Currency: Single source only — confidence capped at Low.

Ownership: Single source only — confidence capped at Low.

Trade: Single source only — confidence capped at Low.

10. Falsification Conditions

Any dimension with <3 source disciplines has confidence capped at Low.

If a data source has not refreshed within its declared update_frequency, it is marked stale and excluded.

If two independent sources contradict on a dimension, the dimension is held unscored until reconciled.

ACLED armed conflict data is at 0 rows (API blocked) — Social Unrest dimension relies on GDELT + signals only.

This report is falsified if Ukraine's risk profile changes materially before next assessment.

11. Methodology Appendix

Per ER-03 Methodology War Room (2026-08-17):

Six dimensions scored 0-100 with evidence from mapped data sources

Composite = weighted average (equal weights by default)

Confidence: High (≥3 sources), Moderate (2), Low (1)

Risk bands: Low (0-20), Elevated (21-40), Moderate (41-60), High (61-80), Critical (81-100)

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Forreast Strategic Intelligence — Montis Sapientia, Fluminis Vis.