ER-03 All-Round Geopolitical Risk Assessment: Russia

Report ID: d30b949f
Date: 2026-08-25
Classification: Strategic Intelligence — Geopolitical Risk

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```
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FORREAST GEOPOLITICAL RISK SCORE: Russia — 65.2/100
Dimensions: PEP [67] · Currency [57] · Ownership [48] · Trade [63] · Social Unrest [56] · Sanctions [100]
Risk level: High — ACT
Assessment date: 2026-08-25
═══════════════════════════════════════════
```

1. Executive Summary

This assessment evaluates geopolitical risk for Russia across 6 of 6 dimensions. The composite Forreast Geopolitical Risk Score is 65.2/100 (High — ACT).

Dimension	Score	Confidence	Evidence Count	Sources
PEP	67/100	low	5,824	1
Currency	57/100	low	338	1
Ownership	48/100	low	120	1
Trade	63/100	low	643	1
Social Unrest	56/100	moderate	41	2
Sanctions	100/100	high	16,320	8

2. PEP & Political Stability

Score: 67/100 | Confidence: low | Evidence: 5,824 items from 1 source(s)

Source: intel_ofac_sdn (5,824 records)

{"name": "POPOV, Dimitri Igorevich", "type": "individual", "program": "DRCONGO"}

{"name": "PUBLIC JOINT STOCK COMPANY GAZPROM NEFT", "type": "-0- ", "program": "UKRAINE-EO13662] [RUSSIA-EO14024"}

{"name": "BEREZIN, Fedor", "type": "individual", "program": "UKRAINE-EO13660"}

3. Currency & Monetary Risk

Score: 57/100 | Confidence: low | Evidence: 338 items from 1 source(s)

Source: world_bank_indicators (338 records)

{"indicator": "Manufacturing, value added (% of GDP)", "year": 2025, "value": 13.6558110636678, "unit": null}

{"indicator": "Exports of goods and services (current US$)", "year": 2025, "value": 466237273304.333, "unit": null}

{"indicator": "Inflation, consumer prices (annual %)", "year": 2025, "value": 8.71986939402666, "unit": null}

4. Ownership Landscape

Score: 48/100 | Confidence: low | Evidence: 120 items from 1 source(s)

Source: corporate_ownership (120 records)

{"company": "RT America", "parent": "RT", "ticker": null, "industry": null}

{"company": "RT UK", "parent": "RT", "ticker": null, "industry": null}

{"company": "RT International", "parent": "RT", "ticker": null, "industry": null}

5. Trade Flow Analysis

Score: 63/100 | Confidence: low | Evidence: 643 items from 1 source(s)

Source: trade_flows (643 records)

6. Social Unrest & Conflict

Score: 56/100 | Confidence: moderate | Evidence: 41 items from 2 source(s)

Source: intel_gdelt_articles (30 records)

{"title": "Russian airstrike kills 16 in Kyiv ; Zelenskyy demands Patriots", "date": "2026-08-21 21:00:00+00:00", "domain": "hongkongherald.com", "country": "China"}

{"title": "\u0412 \u0440\u043e\u0441\u0441\u0438\u0439\u0441\u043a\u0438\u0445 \u0448\u043a\u043e\u043b\u0430\u0445 \u043f\u043e\u044f\u0432\u0438\u0442\u0441\u044f \u043a\u0443\u0440\u0441 \u043f\u043e \u0438\u0441\u043a\u0443\u0441\u0441\u0442\u0432\u0435\u043d\u043d\u043e\u043c\u0443 \u0438\u043d\u0442\u0435\u043b\u043b\u0435\u043a\u0442\u0443 \u0438 \u0438\u043d\u0444\u043e\u0440\u043c\u0431\u0435\u0437\u043e\u043f\u0430\u0441\u043d\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0438", "date": "2026-08-21 21:00:00+00:00", "domain": "lenta.ru", "country": "Russia"}

{"title": "\u0411\u043e\u0435\u0432\u0438\u043a\u0438 \u0412\u0421\u0423 \u0434\u0435\u043b\u0430\u044e\u0442 \u0438 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0434\u0430\u044e\u0442 \u0443\u0440\u043d\u044b \u0434\u043b\u044f \u043c\u0443\u0441\u043e\u0440\u0430 \u0438\u0437 \u0442\u0443\u0431\u0443\u0441\u043e\u0432 \u043e\u0442 \u0441\u043d\u0430\u0440\u044f\u0434\u043e\u0432 \u041d\u0410\u0422\u041e", "date": "2026-08-21 00:15:00+00:00", "domain": "news.mail.ru", "country": "Russia"}

Source: signals (11 records)

{"type": "political_geographic", "title": "Russian attacks on Ukraine kill 2 people a day after deadly shopping mall drone strike", "detected_at": "GDELT conflict event: Russian attacks on Ukraine kill 2 people a day after deadly shopping mall drone strike (source: thegazette.com)"}

{"type": "political_geographic", "title": "Russian strike kills at least 15 at shopping centre in Zelensky home city", "detected_at": "GDELT conflict event: Russian strike kills at least 15 at shopping centre in Zelensky home city (source: newsandstar.co.uk)"}

{"type": "political_geographic", "title": "Russian airstrike kills 16 in Kyiv ; Zelenskyy demands Patriots", "detected_at": "GDELT conflict event: Russian airstrike kills 16 in Kyiv ; Zelenskyy demands Patriots (source: californiatelegraph.com)"}

7. Sanctions Exposure

Score: 100/100 | Confidence: high | Evidence: 16,320 items from 8 source(s)

Source: intel_ofac_sdn (5,824 records)

Source: sanctions_list (106 records)

Source: au_sanctions (1,057 records)

Source: ca_sanctions (3,276 records)

Source: ch_sanctions (1,869 records)

Source: eu_sanctions (2,074 records)

Source: uk_ofsi_sanctions (2,102 records)

Source: un_sanctions (12 records)

8. Composite Risk Score & Heat Map

Composite Score: 65.2/100
Risk Band: High — ACT

```
PEP █████████████ 67/100
Currency███████████ 57/100
Owner █████████ 48/100
Trade ████████████ 63/100
Unrest ███████████ 56/100
Sanct. ████████████████████ 100/100
```

9. Data Gaps & Confidence Statement

PEP: Single source only — confidence capped at Low.

Currency: Single source only — confidence capped at Low.

Ownership: Single source only — confidence capped at Low.

Trade: Single source only — confidence capped at Low.

10. Falsification Conditions

Any dimension with <3 source disciplines has confidence capped at Low.

If a data source has not refreshed within its declared update_frequency, it is marked stale and excluded.

If two independent sources contradict on a dimension, the dimension is held unscored until reconciled.

ACLED armed conflict data is at 0 rows (API blocked) — Social Unrest dimension relies on GDELT + signals only.

This report is falsified if Russia's risk profile changes materially before next assessment.

11. Methodology Appendix

Per ER-03 Methodology War Room (2026-08-17):

Six dimensions scored 0-100 with evidence from mapped data sources

Composite = weighted average (equal weights by default)

Confidence: High (≥3 sources), Moderate (2), Low (1)

Risk bands: Low (0-20), Elevated (21-40), Moderate (41-60), High (61-80), Critical (81-100)

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Forreast Strategic Intelligence — Montis Sapientia, Fluminis Vis.