ER-03 All-Round Geopolitical Risk Assessment: Japan

Report ID: 7728e046
Date: 2026-08-25
Classification: Strategic Intelligence — Geopolitical Risk

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```
═══════════════════════════════════════════
FORREAST GEOPOLITICAL RISK SCORE: Japan — 67.0/100
Dimensions: PEP [52] · Currency [75] · Ownership [84] · Trade [84] · Social Unrest [46] · Sanctions [61]
Risk level: High — ACT
Assessment date: 2026-08-25
═══════════════════════════════════════════
```

1. Executive Summary

This assessment evaluates geopolitical risk for Japan across 6 of 6 dimensions. The composite Forreast Geopolitical Risk Score is 67.0/100 (High — ACT).

Dimension	Score	Confidence	Evidence Count	Sources
PEP	52/100	moderate	28	2
Currency	75/100	moderate	358	2
Ownership	84/100	moderate	2,097	2
Trade	84/100	moderate	72,992	2
Social Unrest	46/100	moderate	14	2
Sanctions	61/100	high	12	5

2. PEP & Political Stability

Score: 52/100 | Confidence: moderate | Evidence: 28 items from 2 source(s)

Source: government_officials (20 records)

{"person": "Thomas Antisell", "position": "foreign government advisor in Meiji Japan", "source_ref": "wikidata"}

{"person": "Thomas Lomar Gray", "position": "foreign government advisor in Meiji Japan", "source_ref": "wikidata"}

{"person": "Thomas Waters", "position": "foreign government advisor in Meiji Japan", "source_ref": "wikidata"}

Source: intel_ofac_sdn (8 records)

{"name": "SHINODA, Kenichi", "type": "individual", "program": "TCO"}

{"name": "TAKAYAMA, Kiyoshi", "type": "individual", "program": "TCO"}

{"name": "UCHIBORI, Kazuo", "type": "individual", "program": "TCO"}

3. Currency & Monetary Risk

Score: 75/100 | Confidence: moderate | Evidence: 358 items from 2 source(s)

Source: world_bank_indicators (338 records)

{"indicator": "Exports of goods and services (current US$)", "year": 2025, "value": null, "unit": null}

{"indicator": "Inflation, consumer prices (annual %)", "year": 2025, "value": 3.17253034260248, "unit": null}

{"indicator": "GDP growth (annual %)", "year": 2025, "value": 1.19311288444599, "unit": null}

Source: oecd_data (20 records)

{"indicator": "Inflation, consumer prices (annual %)", "year": 2024, "value": "2.73853681635241", "unit": null}

{"indicator": "Unemployment, total (% of total labor force) (modeled ILO estimate)", "year": 2024, "value": "2.5", "unit": null}

{"indicator": "Manufacturing, value added (% of GDP)", "year": 2024, "value": "18.817440470747", "unit": null}

4. Ownership Landscape

Score: 84/100 | Confidence: moderate | Evidence: 2,097 items from 2 source(s)

Source: gleif_entities (2,000 records)

{"name": "\u682a\u5f0f\u4f1a\u793e\u65e5\u672c\u30ab\u30b9\u30c8\u30c7\u30a3\u9280\u884c/015369129/912609", "status": "ISSUED", "category": "FUND"}

{"name": "\u30d5\u30ed\u30fc\u30e9\u30a4\u30c8\u5408\u540c\u4f1a\u793e", "status": "ISSUED", "category": "GENERAL"}

{"name": "\u91ce\u6751\u4fe1\u8a17\u9280\u884c\u682a\u5f0f\u4f1a\u793e/138481437", "status": "ISSUED", "category": "FUND"}

Source: corporate_ownership (97 records)

{"company": "Codemasters Japan", "parent": "Codemasters", "ticker": null, "industry": "video game industry"}

{"company": "Sugar & Rockets, Inc.", "parent": "Sony Interactive Entertainment", "ticker": null, "industry": "video game industry"}

{"company": "Q3082031", "parent": "Q122741", "ticker": null, "industry": "video game industry"}

5. Trade Flow Analysis

Score: 84/100 | Confidence: moderate | Evidence: 72,992 items from 2 source(s)

Source: un_comtrade_flows (72,349 records)

{"reporter": "Japan", "partner": "World", "flow": "Import", "hs_desc": null, "value_usd": 742671519685.984, "year": 2024}

{"reporter": "Japan", "partner": "World", "flow": "Export", "hs_desc": null, "value_usd": 707390076243.881, "year": 2024}

{"reporter": "Japan", "partner": "United States", "flow": "Export", "hs_desc": null, "value_usd": 141522567941.446, "year": 2024}

Source: trade_flows (643 records)

6. Social Unrest & Conflict

Score: 46/100 | Confidence: moderate | Evidence: 14 items from 2 source(s)

Source: intel_gdelt_articles (13 records)

{"title": "\u5317\u65b9\u9818\u571f\u5468\u8fba\u3067\u30df\u30b5\u30a4\u30eb\u767a\u5c04\u8a13\u7df4 \uff0f \u30ed\u30b7\u30a2 \u3001 \u65e5\u672c\u3092\u3051\u3093\u5236\u304b | \u5168\u56fd\u30cb\u30e5\u30fc\u30b9", "date": "2026-08-21 00:15:00+00:00", "domain": "shikoku-np.co.jp", "country": "Japan"}

{"title": "Japan Stock Market Due For Rebound On Thursday", "date": "2026-08-20 00:15:00+00:00", "domain": "finanzen.ch", "country": "Switzerland"}

{"title": "ASCII . jp \uff1a\u300c \u7c73\u4e2d\u3069\u3061\u3089\u306b\u3064\u304f \uff1f\u300d \u7c73\u56fd \u3001 AI\u9663\u55b6\u306e \u8e0f\u307f\u7d75 \u3078", "date": "2026-08-18 00:15:00+00:00", "domain": "ascii.jp", "country": "Japan"}

Source: signals (1 records)

{"type": "political_geographic", "title": "North Korea fires a suspected missile toward the sea , Japan says", "detected_at": "GDELT conflict event: North Korea fires a suspected missile toward the sea , Japan says (source: kedm.org)"}

7. Sanctions Exposure

Score: 61/100 | Confidence: high | Evidence: 12 items from 5 source(s)

Source: intel_ofac_sdn (8 records)

Source: sanctions_list (1 records)

Source: au_sanctions (1 records)

Source: eu_sanctions (1 records)

Source: uk_ofsi_sanctions (1 records)

8. Composite Risk Score & Heat Map

Composite Score: 67.0/100
Risk Band: High — ACT

```
PEP ██████████ 52/100
Currency███████████████ 75/100
Owner ████████████████ 84/100
Trade ████████████████ 84/100
Unrest █████████ 46/100
Sanct. ████████████ 61/100
```

9. Data Gaps & Confidence Statement

No significant data gaps detected. All dimensions scored with ≥2 sources.

10. Falsification Conditions

Any dimension with <3 source disciplines has confidence capped at Low.

If a data source has not refreshed within its declared update_frequency, it is marked stale and excluded.

If two independent sources contradict on a dimension, the dimension is held unscored until reconciled.

ACLED armed conflict data is at 0 rows (API blocked) — Social Unrest dimension relies on GDELT + signals only.

This report is falsified if Japan's risk profile changes materially before next assessment.

11. Methodology Appendix

Per ER-03 Methodology War Room (2026-08-17):

Six dimensions scored 0-100 with evidence from mapped data sources

Composite = weighted average (equal weights by default)

Confidence: High (≥3 sources), Moderate (2), Low (1)

Risk bands: Low (0-20), Elevated (21-40), Moderate (41-60), High (61-80), Critical (81-100)

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