ER-03 All-Round Geopolitical Risk Assessment: Iran

Report ID: 1f409bb0
Date: 2026-08-25
Classification: Strategic Intelligence — Geopolitical Risk

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```
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FORREAST GEOPOLITICAL RISK SCORE: Iran — 62.3/100
Dimensions: PEP [67] · Currency [57] · Ownership [29] · Trade [63] · Social Unrest [58] · Sanctions [100]
Risk level: High — ACT
Assessment date: 2026-08-25
═══════════════════════════════════════════
```

1. Executive Summary

This assessment evaluates geopolitical risk for Iran across 6 of 6 dimensions. The composite Forreast Geopolitical Risk Score is 62.3/100 (High — ACT).

Dimension	Score	Confidence	Evidence Count	Sources
PEP	67/100	low	1,602	1
Currency	57/100	low	338	1
Ownership	29/100	low	13	1
Trade	63/100	low	643	1
Social Unrest	58/100	moderate	53	2
Sanctions	100/100	high	3,673	8

2. PEP & Political Stability

Score: 67/100 | Confidence: low | Evidence: 1,602 items from 1 source(s)

Source: intel_ofac_sdn (1,602 records)

{"name": "NAWAY, Haji Ali", "type": "individual", "program": "SDNTK"}

{"name": "REZAIE, Morteza", "type": "individual", "program": "SDGT] [NPWMD] [IRGC] [IFSR"}

{"name": "AHMADIAN, Ali Akbar", "type": "individual", "program": "SDGT] [NPWMD] [IRGC] [IFSR"}

3. Currency & Monetary Risk

Score: 57/100 | Confidence: low | Evidence: 338 items from 1 source(s)

Source: world_bank_indicators (338 records)

{"indicator": "Exports of goods and services (current US$)", "year": 2025, "value": 93406513015.3745, "unit": null}

{"indicator": "Inflation, consumer prices (annual %)", "year": 2025, "value": 42.1712244965444, "unit": null}

{"indicator": "GDP growth (annual %)", "year": 2025, "value": -2.82597163290347, "unit": null}

4. Ownership Landscape

Score: 29/100 | Confidence: low | Evidence: 13 items from 1 source(s)

Source: corporate_ownership (13 records)

{"company": "UNESCO Chair on Cyberspace and Culture", "parent": "UNESCO", "ticker": null, "industry": null}

{"company": "ICOMOS Iran", "parent": "International Council on Monuments and Sites", "ticker": null, "industry": null}

{"company": "UNESCO Chair on Cyberspace and Culture", "parent": "University of Tehran", "ticker": null, "industry": null}

5. Trade Flow Analysis

Score: 63/100 | Confidence: low | Evidence: 643 items from 1 source(s)

Source: trade_flows (643 records)

6. Social Unrest & Conflict

Score: 58/100 | Confidence: moderate | Evidence: 53 items from 2 source(s)

Source: intel_gdelt_articles (39 records)

{"title": "Iran - linked oil tanker falls victim to Somali piracy surge", "date": "2026-08-21 21:00:00+00:00", "domain": "thedailystar.net", "country": "Bangladesh"}

{"title": "Iran Tensions Push Oil Near $94", "date": "2026-08-21 00:15:00+00:00", "domain": "rigzone.com", "country": "United States"}

{"title": "We are going to collapse this regime : The US plan to target Iran economy", "date": "2026-08-21 00:15:00+00:00", "domain": "10news.com", "country": "United States"}

Source: signals (14 records)

{"type": "political_geographic", "title": "Pentagon Reports Over 750 U . S . Troops Wounded In Iran Conflict", "detected_at": "GDELT conflict event: Pentagon Reports Over 750 U . S . Troops Wounded In Iran Conflict (source: 590kqnt.iheart.com)"}

{"type": "political_geographic", "title": "We are going to collapse this regime : The US plan to target Iran economy", "detected_at": "GDELT article: We are going to collapse this regime : The US plan to target Iran economy (10news.com)"}

{"type": "political_geographic", "title": "Trump announces most crushing economic operation ever against Iran , warns countries aiding it of tremendous consequences", "detected_at": "GDELT article: Trump announces most crushing economic operation ever against Iran , warns countries aiding it of tremendous consequences (aninews.in)"}

7. Sanctions Exposure

Score: 100/100 | Confidence: high | Evidence: 3,673 items from 8 source(s)

Source: intel_ofac_sdn (1,602 records)

Source: sanctions_list (141 records)

Source: au_sanctions (161 records)

Source: ca_sanctions (471 records)

Source: ch_sanctions (308 records)

Source: eu_sanctions (558 records)

Source: uk_ofsi_sanctions (384 records)

Source: un_sanctions (48 records)

8. Composite Risk Score & Heat Map

Composite Score: 62.3/100
Risk Band: High — ACT

```
PEP █████████████ 67/100
Currency███████████ 57/100
Owner █████ 29/100
Trade ████████████ 63/100
Unrest ███████████ 58/100
Sanct. ████████████████████ 100/100
```

9. Data Gaps & Confidence Statement

PEP: Single source only — confidence capped at Low.

Currency: Single source only — confidence capped at Low.

Ownership: Single source only — confidence capped at Low.

Trade: Single source only — confidence capped at Low.

10. Falsification Conditions

Any dimension with <3 source disciplines has confidence capped at Low.

If a data source has not refreshed within its declared update_frequency, it is marked stale and excluded.

If two independent sources contradict on a dimension, the dimension is held unscored until reconciled.

ACLED armed conflict data is at 0 rows (API blocked) — Social Unrest dimension relies on GDELT + signals only.

This report is falsified if Iran's risk profile changes materially before next assessment.

11. Methodology Appendix

Per ER-03 Methodology War Room (2026-08-17):

Six dimensions scored 0-100 with evidence from mapped data sources

Composite = weighted average (equal weights by default)

Confidence: High (≥3 sources), Moderate (2), Low (1)

Risk bands: Low (0-20), Elevated (21-40), Moderate (41-60), High (61-80), Critical (81-100)

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