ER-03 All-Round Geopolitical Risk Assessment: Brazil

Report ID: 1a7eb978
Date: 2026-08-25
Classification: Strategic Intelligence — Geopolitical Risk

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```
═══════════════════════════════════════════
FORREAST GEOPOLITICAL RISK SCORE: Brazil — 60.0/100
Dimensions: PEP [33] · Currency [57] · Ownership [84] · Trade [84] · Social Unrest [52] · Sanctions [50]
Risk level: Moderate — ASSESS
Assessment date: 2026-08-25
═══════════════════════════════════════════
```

1. Executive Summary

This assessment evaluates geopolitical risk for Brazil across 6 of 6 dimensions. The composite Forreast Geopolitical Risk Score is 60.0/100 (Moderate — ASSESS).

Dimension	Score	Confidence	Evidence Count	Sources
PEP	33/100	low	20	1
Currency	57/100	low	338	1
Ownership	84/100	moderate	2,058	2
Trade	84/100	moderate	50,629	2
Social Unrest	52/100	moderate	27	2
Sanctions	50/100	moderate	21	2

2. PEP & Political Stability

Score: 33/100 | Confidence: low | Evidence: 20 items from 1 source(s)

Source: intel_ofac_sdn (20 records)

{"name": "DIAS DE MENDONCA, Leonardo", "type": "individual", "program": "SDNTK"}

{"name": "JAMIL GEORGES, Fahd", "type": "individual", "program": "SDNTK"}

{"name": "OMAIRI, Farouk", "type": "individual", "program": "SDGT"}

3. Currency & Monetary Risk

Score: 57/100 | Confidence: low | Evidence: 338 items from 1 source(s)

Source: world_bank_indicators (338 records)

{"indicator": "Energy use (kg of oil equivalent per capita)", "year": 2025, "value": null, "unit": null}

{"indicator": "Exports of goods and services (current US$)", "year": 2025, "value": 406298241937.141, "unit": null}

{"indicator": "Inflation, consumer prices (annual %)", "year": 2025, "value": 5.01675279604836, "unit": null}

4. Ownership Landscape

Score: 84/100 | Confidence: moderate | Evidence: 2,058 items from 2 source(s)

Source: gleif_entities (2,000 records)

{"name": "TRIA SUGAR BRASIL LTDA", "status": "ISSUED", "category": "GENERAL"}

{"name": "THALES INTERNATIONAL BRASIL LTDA", "status": "ISSUED", "category": "GENERAL"}

{"name": "BRA DEFENSIVOS AGRICOLAS LTDA", "status": "ISSUED", "category": "GENERAL"}

Source: corporate_ownership (58 records)

{"company": "South American Council of Health", "parent": "Union of South American Nations", "ticker": null, "industry": null}

{"company": "Shalom Catholic Community", "parent": "Catholic Church", "ticker": null, "industry": "Q10332858"}

{"company": "Odebrecht Engenharia & Constru\u00e7\u00e3o", "parent": "Novonor", "ticker": null, "industry": null}

5. Trade Flow Analysis

Score: 84/100 | Confidence: moderate | Evidence: 50,629 items from 2 source(s)

Source: un_comtrade_flows (49,986 records)

{"reporter": "Brazil", "partner": "World", "flow": "Import", "hs_desc": null, "value_usd": 206377774190.0, "year": 2024}

{"reporter": "Brazil", "partner": "China", "flow": "Export", "hs_desc": "Pulp of wood or other fibrous cellulosic material; recovered (waste and scrap) paper or paperboard", "value_usd": 5002901520.0, "year": 2025}

{"reporter": "Brazil", "partner": "Saudi Arabia", "flow": "Import", "hs_desc": null, "value_usd": 3176594475.0, "year": 2024}

Source: trade_flows (643 records)

6. Social Unrest & Conflict

Score: 52/100 | Confidence: moderate | Evidence: 27 items from 2 source(s)

Source: intel_gdelt_articles (26 records)

{"title": "C\u00e2mara aprova reduo de impostos para combust\u00edveis e outros setores", "date": "2026-08-13 00:30:00+00:00", "domain": "istoe.com.br", "country": "Brazil"}

{"title": "T\u00falio Am\u00e2ncio rebate rumores de atrito na Globo ap\u00f3s perder espa\u00e7o na GloboNews", "date": "2026-08-13 00:30:00+00:00", "domain": "correio24horas.com.br", "country": "Brazil"}

{"title": "Bradesco Launches Corporate Crypto Custody With Foxbit as First Client", "date": "2026-08-12 16:00:00+00:00", "domain": "riotimesonline.com", "country": "Brazil"}

Source: signals (1 records)

{"type": "political_geographic", "title": "Brazilian Energy | Petrobras", "detected_at": "{\"signal_class\": \"political_geographic\", \"entity\": \"Petrobras\", \"source\": \"searxng_fallback\", \"title\": \"Brazilian Energy | Petrobras\", \"url\": \"https://petrobras.com.br/en\", \"severity\": \"HIGH\", \"detected_at\": \"2026-08-06T08:21:49.638774+00:00\"}"}

7. Sanctions Exposure

Score: 50/100 | Confidence: moderate | Evidence: 21 items from 2 source(s)

Source: intel_ofac_sdn (20 records)

Source: uk_ofsi_sanctions (1 records)

8. Composite Risk Score & Heat Map

Composite Score: 60.0/100
Risk Band: Moderate — ASSESS

```
PEP ██████ 33/100
Currency███████████ 57/100
Owner ████████████████ 84/100
Trade ████████████████ 84/100
Unrest ██████████ 52/100
Sanct. ██████████ 50/100
```

9. Data Gaps & Confidence Statement

PEP: Single source only — confidence capped at Low.

Currency: Single source only — confidence capped at Low.

10. Falsification Conditions

Any dimension with <3 source disciplines has confidence capped at Low.

If a data source has not refreshed within its declared update_frequency, it is marked stale and excluded.

If two independent sources contradict on a dimension, the dimension is held unscored until reconciled.

ACLED armed conflict data is at 0 rows (API blocked) — Social Unrest dimension relies on GDELT + signals only.

This report is falsified if Brazil's risk profile changes materially before next assessment.

11. Methodology Appendix

Per ER-03 Methodology War Room (2026-08-17):

Six dimensions scored 0-100 with evidence from mapped data sources

Composite = weighted average (equal weights by default)

Confidence: High (≥3 sources), Moderate (2), Low (1)

Risk bands: Low (0-20), Elevated (21-40), Moderate (41-60), High (61-80), Critical (81-100)

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Forreast Strategic Intelligence — Montis Sapientia, Fluminis Vis.