ER-03 All-Round Geopolitical Risk Assessment: United Kingdom

Report ID: b45bbcb1
Date: 2026-08-25
Classification: Strategic Intelligence — Geopolitical Risk

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```
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FORREAST GEOPOLITICAL RISK SCORE: United Kingdom — 72.8/100
Dimensions: PEP [69] · Currency [75] · Ownership [84] · Trade [84] · Social Unrest [36] · Sanctions [89]
Risk level: High — ACT
Assessment date: 2026-08-25
═══════════════════════════════════════════
```

1. Executive Summary

This assessment evaluates geopolitical risk for United Kingdom across 6 of 6 dimensions. The composite Forreast Geopolitical Risk Score is 72.8/100 (High — ACT).

Dimension	Score	Confidence	Evidence Count	Sources
PEP	69/100	moderate	178	2
Currency	75/100	moderate	358	2
Ownership	84/100	moderate	2,155	2
Trade	84/100	moderate	53,808	2
Social Unrest	36/100	low	30	1
Sanctions	89/100	high	312	6

2. PEP & Political Stability

Score: 69/100 | Confidence: moderate | Evidence: 178 items from 2 source(s)

Source: government_officials (20 records)

{"person": "Charles Green", "position": "Bishop of Bangor", "source_ref": "wikidata"}

{"person": "Matthew Hutton", "position": "Bishop of Bangor", "source_ref": "wikidata"}

{"person": "William Gully, 1st Viscount Selby", "position": "Speaker of the House of Commons", "source_ref": "wikidata"}

Source: intel_ofac_sdn (158 records)

{"name": "HAVIN BANK LIMITED", "type": "-0- ", "program": "CUBA"}

{"name": "BANK SADERAT PLC", "type": "-0- ", "program": "IRAN] [SDGT] [IFSR"}

{"name": "CUBANACAN U.K. LIMITED", "type": "-0- ", "program": "CUBA"}

3. Currency & Monetary Risk

Score: 75/100 | Confidence: moderate | Evidence: 358 items from 2 source(s)

Source: world_bank_indicators (338 records)

{"indicator": "Manufacturing, value added (% of GDP)", "year": 2025, "value": 7.67758788970943, "unit": null}

{"indicator": "Inflation, consumer prices (annual %)", "year": 2025, "value": 3.88306881626, "unit": null}

{"indicator": "Population, total", "year": 2025, "value": 69487000.0, "unit": null}

Source: oecd_data (20 records)

{"indicator": "Inflation, consumer prices (annual %)", "year": 2024, "value": "3.2715729463592", "unit": null}

{"indicator": "Unemployment, total (% of total labor force) (modeled ILO estimate)", "year": 2024, "value": "4.361", "unit": null}

{"indicator": "Manufacturing, value added (% of GDP)", "year": 2024, "value": "7.9734900624048", "unit": null}

4. Ownership Landscape

Score: 84/100 | Confidence: moderate | Evidence: 2,155 items from 2 source(s)

Source: gleif_entities (2,000 records)

{"name": "WELLBEING SURGERY LIMITED", "status": "ACTIVE", "category": "GENERAL"}

{"name": "SILICONSPARK LTD", "status": "ACTIVE", "category": "GENERAL"}

{"name": "SANJAY SHARMA LIMITED", "status": "ACTIVE", "category": "GENERAL"}

Source: corporate_ownership (155 records)

{"company": "European Centre for Space Applications and Telecommunications", "parent": "European Space Agency", "ticker": null, "industry": null}

{"company": "Q60603602", "parent": "Sony Group", "ticker": null, "industry": "video game industry"}

{"company": "Prime Minister's Office", "parent": "Cabinet Office", "ticker": null, "industry": null}

5. Trade Flow Analysis

Score: 84/100 | Confidence: moderate | Evidence: 53,808 items from 2 source(s)

Source: un_comtrade_flows (53,165 records)

{"reporter": "United Kingdom", "partner": "United States", "flow": "Export", "hs_desc": "Pharmaceutical products", "value_usd": 5794953271.84, "year": 2024}

{"reporter": "United Kingdom", "partner": "United States", "flow": "Export", "hs_desc": "Turbo-jets, turbo-propellers and other gas turbines", "value_usd": 4579415210.795, "year": 2025}

{"reporter": "United Kingdom", "partner": "United States", "flow": "Export", "hs_desc": "Organic chemicals", "value_usd": 2388040779.225, "year": 2024}

Source: trade_flows (643 records)

6. Social Unrest & Conflict

Score: 36/100 | Confidence: low | Evidence: 30 items from 1 source(s)

Source: intel_gdelt_articles (30 records)

{"title": "Trump declares economic D - Day on Iran in rambling post demanding allies stand with US", "date": "2026-08-20 00:15:00+00:00", "domain": "mirror.co.uk", "country": "United Kingdom"}

{"title": "The best AI website builders for small businesses 2026", "date": "2026-08-19 00:15:00+00:00", "domain": "bmmagazine.co.uk", "country": "United Kingdom"}

{"title": "Some retailers not passing on wholesale fuel price falls quickly enough \u2013 CMA", "date": "2026-08-18 17:45:00+00:00", "domain": "stroudnewsandjournal.co.uk", "country": "United Kingdom"}

7. Sanctions Exposure

Score: 89/100 | Confidence: high | Evidence: 312 items from 6 source(s)

Source: intel_ofac_sdn (158 records)

Source: au_sanctions (18 records)

Source: ch_sanctions (28 records)

Source: eu_sanctions (31 records)

Source: uk_ofsi_sanctions (64 records)

Source: un_sanctions (13 records)

8. Composite Risk Score & Heat Map

Composite Score: 72.8/100
Risk Band: High — ACT

```
PEP █████████████ 69/100
Currency███████████████ 75/100
Owner ████████████████ 84/100
Trade ████████████████ 84/100
Unrest ███████ 36/100
Sanct. █████████████████ 89/100
```

9. Data Gaps & Confidence Statement

Social Unrest: Single source only — confidence capped at Low.

10. Falsification Conditions

Any dimension with <3 source disciplines has confidence capped at Low.

If a data source has not refreshed within its declared update_frequency, it is marked stale and excluded.

If two independent sources contradict on a dimension, the dimension is held unscored until reconciled.

ACLED armed conflict data is at 0 rows (API blocked) — Social Unrest dimension relies on GDELT + signals only.

This report is falsified if United Kingdom's risk profile changes materially before next assessment.

11. Methodology Appendix

Per ER-03 Methodology War Room (2026-08-17):

Six dimensions scored 0-100 with evidence from mapped data sources

Composite = weighted average (equal weights by default)

Confidence: High (≥3 sources), Moderate (2), Low (1)

Risk bands: Low (0-20), Elevated (21-40), Moderate (41-60), High (61-80), Critical (81-100)

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