ER-03 All-Round Geopolitical Risk Assessment: China

Report ID: a0e40b50
Date: 2026-08-25
Classification: Strategic Intelligence — Geopolitical Risk

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```
═══════════════════════════════════════════
FORREAST GEOPOLITICAL RISK SCORE: China — 74.5/100
Dimensions: PEP [60] · Currency [57] · Ownership [84] · Trade [84] · Social Unrest [64] · Sanctions [98]
Risk level: High — ACT
Assessment date: 2026-08-25
═══════════════════════════════════════════
```

1. Executive Summary

This assessment evaluates geopolitical risk for China across 6 of 6 dimensions. The composite Forreast Geopolitical Risk Score is 74.5/100 (High — ACT).

Dimension	Score	Confidence	Evidence Count	Sources
PEP	60/100	low	486	1
Currency	57/100	low	338	1
Ownership	84/100	moderate	2,060	2
Trade	84/100	moderate	55,498	2
Social Unrest	64/100	moderate	107	2
Sanctions	98/100	high	826	8

2. PEP & Political Stability

Score: 60/100 | Confidence: low | Evidence: 486 items from 1 source(s)

Source: intel_ofac_sdn (486 records)

{"name": "WONG, Moon Chi", "type": "individual", "program": "SDNTK"}

{"name": "HAQ, Abdul", "type": "individual", "program": "SDGT"}

{"name": "LI, Fangwei", "type": "individual", "program": "NPWMD] [IFSR"}

3. Currency & Monetary Risk

Score: 57/100 | Confidence: low | Evidence: 338 items from 1 source(s)

Source: world_bank_indicators (338 records)

{"indicator": "Energy use (kg of oil equivalent per capita)", "year": 2025, "value": null, "unit": null}

{"indicator": "Exports of goods and services (current US$)", "year": 2025, "value": 4108470555117.51, "unit": null}

{"indicator": "Inflation, consumer prices (annual %)", "year": 2025, "value": 0.0595646916565403, "unit": null}

4. Ownership Landscape

Score: 84/100 | Confidence: moderate | Evidence: 2,060 items from 2 source(s)

Source: gleif_entities (2,000 records)

{"name": "\u5e7f\u5dde\u5353\u901a\u56fd\u9645\u7269\u6d41\u6709\u9650\u516c\u53f8", "status": "ISSUED", "category": "GENERAL"}

{"name": "\u4e0a\u6d77\u95ee\u7535\u65b0\u80fd\u6e90\u79d1\u6280\u6709\u9650\u516c\u53f8", "status": "ISSUED", "category": "GENERAL"}

{"name": "\u6df1\u5733\u5e02\u4e91\u9a81\u749f\u534e\u79d1\u6280\u6709\u9650\u516c\u53f8", "status": "ISSUED", "category": "GENERAL"}

Source: corporate_ownership (60 records)

{"company": "Legislative Affairs Commission", "parent": "Standing Committee of the National People's Congress", "ticker": null, "industry": null}

{"company": "Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies", "parent": "Stanford University", "ticker": null, "industry": null}

{"company": "Hong Kong Examinations and Assessment Authority", "parent": "Government of Hong Kong", "ticker": null, "industry": null}

5. Trade Flow Analysis

Score: 84/100 | Confidence: moderate | Evidence: 55,498 items from 2 source(s)

Source: un_comtrade_flows (54,855 records)

{"reporter": "China", "partner": "World", "flow": "Export", "hs_desc": null, "value_usd": 3576543293842.0, "year": 2024}

{"reporter": "China", "partner": "World", "flow": "Import", "hs_desc": null, "value_usd": 2585134598079.0, "year": 2024}

{"reporter": "China", "partner": "United States", "flow": "Export", "hs_desc": null, "value_usd": 525648764497.0, "year": 2024}

Source: trade_flows (643 records)

6. Social Unrest & Conflict

Score: 64/100 | Confidence: moderate | Evidence: 107 items from 2 source(s)

Source: intel_gdelt_articles (106 records)

{"title": "Ghalibaf pushes for trade in local currency to bypass", "date": "2026-08-21 21:00:00+00:00", "domain": "hongkongherald.com", "country": "China"}

{"title": "\u9999\u6e2f\u6cd5\u9662\u5224\u51b3\u5929\u5b89\u95e8\u70db\u5149\u60bc\u5ff5\u6d3b\u52a8\u7ec4\u7ec7\u8005\u72af\u717d\u98a0\u7f6a \uff1b \u7f8e\u56fd \u3001 \u82f1\u56fd \u3001 \u6b27\u76df\u548c\u53f0\u6e7e\u8c34\u8d23\u653f\u6cbb\u8feb\u5bb3", "date": "2026-08-21 21:00:00+00:00", "domain": "voachinese.com", "country": "China"}

{"title": "Russian airstrike kills 16 in Kyiv ; Zelenskyy demands Patriots", "date": "2026-08-21 21:00:00+00:00", "domain": "hongkongherald.com", "country": "China"}

Source: signals (1 records)

{"type": "political_geographic", "title": "RBI curbs on NBFC flexi credit may push lenders towards bullet loans , raise costs : Kotak", "detected_at": "GDELT article: RBI curbs on NBFC flexi credit may push lenders towards bullet loans , raise costs : Kotak (chinanationalnews.com)"}

7. Sanctions Exposure

Score: 98/100 | Confidence: high | Evidence: 826 items from 8 source(s)

Source: intel_ofac_sdn (486 records)

Source: sanctions_list (17 records)

Source: au_sanctions (2 records)

Source: ca_sanctions (13 records)

Source: ch_sanctions (118 records)

Source: eu_sanctions (54 records)

Source: uk_ofsi_sanctions (129 records)

Source: un_sanctions (7 records)

8. Composite Risk Score & Heat Map

Composite Score: 74.5/100
Risk Band: High — ACT

```
PEP ████████████ 60/100
Currency███████████ 57/100
Owner ████████████████ 84/100
Trade ████████████████ 84/100
Unrest ████████████ 64/100
Sanct. ███████████████████ 98/100
```

9. Data Gaps & Confidence Statement

PEP: Single source only — confidence capped at Low.

Currency: Single source only — confidence capped at Low.

10. Falsification Conditions

Any dimension with <3 source disciplines has confidence capped at Low.

If a data source has not refreshed within its declared update_frequency, it is marked stale and excluded.

If two independent sources contradict on a dimension, the dimension is held unscored until reconciled.

ACLED armed conflict data is at 0 rows (API blocked) — Social Unrest dimension relies on GDELT + signals only.

This report is falsified if China's risk profile changes materially before next assessment.

11. Methodology Appendix

Per ER-03 Methodology War Room (2026-08-17):

Six dimensions scored 0-100 with evidence from mapped data sources

Composite = weighted average (equal weights by default)

Confidence: High (≥3 sources), Moderate (2), Low (1)

Risk bands: Low (0-20), Elevated (21-40), Moderate (41-60), High (61-80), Critical (81-100)

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