ER-03 All-Round Geopolitical Risk Assessment: North Korea

Report ID: 30c0c2f7
Date: 2026-08-25
Classification: Strategic Intelligence — Geopolitical Risk

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```
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FORREAST GEOPOLITICAL RISK SCORE: North Korea — 55.3/100
Dimensions: PEP [63] · Currency [57] · Ownership [16] · Trade [63] · Social Unrest [33] · Sanctions [100]
Risk level: Moderate — ASSESS
Assessment date: 2026-08-25
═══════════════════════════════════════════
```

1. Executive Summary

This assessment evaluates geopolitical risk for North Korea across 6 of 6 dimensions. The composite Forreast Geopolitical Risk Score is 55.3/100 (Moderate — ASSESS).

Dimension	Score	Confidence	Evidence Count	Sources
PEP	63/100	low	674	1
Currency	57/100	low	338	1
Ownership	16/100	low	3	1
Trade	63/100	low	643	1
Social Unrest	33/100	moderate	3	2
Sanctions	100/100	high	1,454	6

2. PEP & Political Stability

Score: 63/100 | Confidence: low | Evidence: 674 items from 1 source(s)

Source: intel_ofac_sdn (674 records)

{"name": "KOREA MINING DEVELOPMENT TRADING CORPORATION", "type": "-0- ", "program": "NPWMD] [DPRK2"}

{"name": "TANCHON COMMERCIAL BANK", "type": "-0- ", "program": "NPWMD"}

{"name": "KOREA RYONBONG GENERAL CORPORATION", "type": "-0- ", "program": "NPWMD"}

3. Currency & Monetary Risk

Score: 57/100 | Confidence: low | Evidence: 338 items from 1 source(s)

Source: world_bank_indicators (338 records)

{"indicator": "Exports of goods and services (current US$)", "year": 2025, "value": null, "unit": null}

{"indicator": "GDP growth (annual %)", "year": 2025, "value": null, "unit": null}

{"indicator": "Manufacturing, value added (% of GDP)", "year": 2025, "value": null, "unit": null}

4. Ownership Landscape

Score: 16/100 | Confidence: low | Evidence: 3 items from 1 source(s)

Source: corporate_ownership (3 records)

{"company": "Room 39", "parent": "Central Committee of the Workers' Party of Korea", "ticker": null, "industry": null}

{"company": "United Front Department", "parent": "Central Committee of the Workers' Party of Korea", "ticker": null, "industry": null}

{"company": "Propaganda and Agitation Department", "parent": "Central Committee of the Workers' Party of Korea", "ticker": null, "industry": null}

5. Trade Flow Analysis

Score: 63/100 | Confidence: low | Evidence: 643 items from 1 source(s)

Source: trade_flows (643 records)

6. Social Unrest & Conflict

Score: 33/100 | Confidence: moderate | Evidence: 3 items from 2 source(s)

Source: intel_gdelt_articles (1 records)

{"title": "North Korea Launches Another Missile Toward Sea Ahead Of US - South Korean Military Drills", "date": "2026-08-13 00:30:00+00:00", "domain": "theyeshivaworld.com", "country": "United States"}

Source: signals (2 records)

{"type": "political_geographic", "title": "North Korea fires a suspected missile toward the sea , Japan says", "detected_at": "GDELT conflict event: North Korea fires a suspected missile toward the sea , Japan says (source: kedm.org)"}

{"type": "political_geographic", "title": "North Korea Launches Another Missile Toward Sea Ahead Of US - South Korean Military Drills", "detected_at": "GDELT article: North Korea Launches Another Missile Toward Sea Ahead Of US - South Korean Military Drills (theyeshivaworld.com)"}

7. Sanctions Exposure

Score: 100/100 | Confidence: high | Evidence: 1,454 items from 6 source(s)

Source: intel_ofac_sdn (674 records)

Source: au_sanctions (106 records)

Source: ch_sanctions (143 records)

Source: eu_sanctions (194 records)

Source: uk_ofsi_sanctions (196 records)

Source: un_sanctions (141 records)

8. Composite Risk Score & Heat Map

Composite Score: 55.3/100
Risk Band: Moderate — ASSESS

```
PEP ████████████ 63/100
Currency███████████ 57/100
Owner ███ 16/100
Trade ████████████ 63/100
Unrest ██████ 33/100
Sanct. ████████████████████ 100/100
```

9. Data Gaps & Confidence Statement

PEP: Single source only — confidence capped at Low.

Currency: Single source only — confidence capped at Low.

Ownership: Single source only — confidence capped at Low.

Trade: Single source only — confidence capped at Low.

10. Falsification Conditions

Any dimension with <3 source disciplines has confidence capped at Low.

If a data source has not refreshed within its declared update_frequency, it is marked stale and excluded.

If two independent sources contradict on a dimension, the dimension is held unscored until reconciled.

ACLED armed conflict data is at 0 rows (API blocked) — Social Unrest dimension relies on GDELT + signals only.

This report is falsified if North Korea's risk profile changes materially before next assessment.

11. Methodology Appendix

Per ER-03 Methodology War Room (2026-08-17):

Six dimensions scored 0-100 with evidence from mapped data sources

Composite = weighted average (equal weights by default)

Confidence: High (≥3 sources), Moderate (2), Low (1)

Risk bands: Low (0-20), Elevated (21-40), Moderate (41-60), High (61-80), Critical (81-100)

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