ER-03 All-Round Geopolitical Risk Assessment: Australia

Report ID: 96f9628c
Date: 2026-08-25
Classification: Strategic Intelligence — Geopolitical Risk

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```
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FORREAST GEOPOLITICAL RISK SCORE: Australia — 65.3/100
Dimensions: PEP [52] · Currency [75] · Ownership [84] · Trade [84] · Social Unrest [33] · Sanctions [64]
Risk level: High — ACT
Assessment date: 2026-08-25
═══════════════════════════════════════════
```

1. Executive Summary

This assessment evaluates geopolitical risk for Australia across 6 of 6 dimensions. The composite Forreast Geopolitical Risk Score is 65.3/100 (High — ACT).

Dimension	Score	Confidence	Evidence Count	Sources
PEP	52/100	moderate	28	2
Currency	75/100	moderate	358	2
Ownership	84/100	moderate	2,022	2
Trade	84/100	moderate	52,007	2
Social Unrest	33/100	low	20	1
Sanctions	64/100	high	17	4

2. PEP & Political Stability

Score: 52/100 | Confidence: moderate | Evidence: 28 items from 2 source(s)

Source: government_officials (20 records)

{"person": "Rosemary Follett", "position": "Chief Minister of the Australian Capital Territory", "source_ref": "wikidata"}

{"person": "Rosemary Follett", "position": "Chief Minister of the Australian Capital Territory", "source_ref": "wikidata"}

{"person": "Gary Humphries", "position": "Chief Minister of the Australian Capital Territory", "source_ref": "wikidata"}

Source: intel_ofac_sdn (8 records)

{"name": "TAMILS REHABILITATION ORGANISATION", "type": "-0- ", "program": "SDGT"}

{"name": "FARAH, Meliad", "type": "individual", "program": "SDGT"}

{"name": "MAHAMED, Mostafa", "type": "individual", "program": "SDGT"}

3. Currency & Monetary Risk

Score: 75/100 | Confidence: moderate | Evidence: 358 items from 2 source(s)

Source: world_bank_indicators (338 records)

{"indicator": "Exports of goods and services (current US$)", "year": 2025, "value": 418055624770.646, "unit": null}

{"indicator": "Manufacturing, value added (% of GDP)", "year": 2025, "value": 5.31714561568853, "unit": null}

{"indicator": "GDP (current US$)", "year": 2025, "value": 1798518933689.21, "unit": null}

Source: oecd_data (20 records)

{"indicator": "Inflation, consumer prices (annual %)", "year": 2024, "value": "3.16656665428797", "unit": null}

{"indicator": "Unemployment, total (% of total labor force) (modeled ILO estimate)", "year": 2024, "value": "3.942", "unit": null}

{"indicator": "Manufacturing, value added (% of GDP)", "year": 2024, "value": "5.37633044467869", "unit": null}

4. Ownership Landscape

Score: 84/100 | Confidence: moderate | Evidence: 2,022 items from 2 source(s)

Source: gleif_entities (2,000 records)

{"name": "The Trustee for Eureka All-Age Property Trust No.1", "status": "ISSUED", "category": "GENERAL"}

{"name": "NFXT PTY LTD", "status": "ISSUED", "category": "GENERAL"}

{"name": "MOONE PTY LTD", "status": "ISSUED", "category": "GENERAL"}

Source: corporate_ownership (22 records)

{"company": "National Herbarium of New South Wales", "parent": "Royal Botanic Gardens, Sydney", "ticker": null, "industry": null}

{"company": "Melbourne Disability Institute", "parent": "University of Melbourne", "ticker": null, "industry": null}

{"company": "Australian Tropical Herbarium", "parent": "James Cook University", "ticker": null, "industry": null}

5. Trade Flow Analysis

Score: 84/100 | Confidence: moderate | Evidence: 52,007 items from 2 source(s)

Source: un_comtrade_flows (51,364 records)

{"reporter": "Australia", "partner": "World", "flow": "Export", "hs_desc": null, "value_usd": 340854851740.669, "year": 2024}

{"reporter": "Australia", "partner": "World", "flow": "Import", "hs_desc": null, "value_usd": 296481761665.157, "year": 2024}

{"reporter": "Australia", "partner": "China", "flow": "Export", "hs_desc": null, "value_usd": 101745212857.693, "year": 2025}

Source: trade_flows (643 records)

6. Social Unrest & Conflict

Score: 33/100 | Confidence: low | Evidence: 20 items from 1 source(s)

Source: intel_gdelt_articles (20 records)

{"title": "As Cyber Risks Grow , Malaysia Key Industries Turn Their Attention to CyberDSA 2026", "date": "2026-08-19 06:30:00+00:00", "domain": "sydneysun.com", "country": "Australia"}

{"title": "New national reserve for fuel consultation opens | Queensland Country Life", "date": "2026-08-19 05:15:00+00:00", "domain": "queenslandcountrylife.com.au", "country": "Australia"}

{"title": "Stock market warning signs on AI echo dotcom era bubble | Narooma News", "date": "2026-08-19 00:15:00+00:00", "domain": "naroomanewsonline.com.au", "country": "Australia"}

7. Sanctions Exposure

Score: 64/100 | Confidence: high | Evidence: 17 items from 4 source(s)

Source: intel_ofac_sdn (8 records)

Source: au_sanctions (5 records)

Source: eu_sanctions (2 records)

Source: uk_ofsi_sanctions (2 records)

8. Composite Risk Score & Heat Map

Composite Score: 65.3/100
Risk Band: High — ACT

```
PEP ██████████ 52/100
Currency███████████████ 75/100
Owner ████████████████ 84/100
Trade ████████████████ 84/100
Unrest ██████ 33/100
Sanct. ████████████ 64/100
```

9. Data Gaps & Confidence Statement

Social Unrest: Single source only — confidence capped at Low.

10. Falsification Conditions

Any dimension with <3 source disciplines has confidence capped at Low.

If a data source has not refreshed within its declared update_frequency, it is marked stale and excluded.

If two independent sources contradict on a dimension, the dimension is held unscored until reconciled.

ACLED armed conflict data is at 0 rows (API blocked) — Social Unrest dimension relies on GDELT + signals only.

This report is falsified if Australia's risk profile changes materially before next assessment.

11. Methodology Appendix

Per ER-03 Methodology War Room (2026-08-17):

Six dimensions scored 0-100 with evidence from mapped data sources

Composite = weighted average (equal weights by default)

Confidence: High (≥3 sources), Moderate (2), Low (1)

Risk bands: Low (0-20), Elevated (21-40), Moderate (41-60), High (61-80), Critical (81-100)

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