ER-03 All-Round Geopolitical Risk Assessment: France

Report ID: e8e1b4dd
Date: 2026-08-25
Classification: Strategic Intelligence — Geopolitical Risk

---

```
═══════════════════════════════════════════
FORREAST GEOPOLITICAL RISK SCORE: France — 64.0/100
Dimensions: PEP [58] · Currency [75] · Ownership [84] · Trade [63] · Social Unrest [25] · Sanctions [79]
Risk level: High — ACT
Assessment date: 2026-08-25
═══════════════════════════════════════════
```

1. Executive Summary

This assessment evaluates geopolitical risk for France across 6 of 6 dimensions. The composite Forreast Geopolitical Risk Score is 64.0/100 (High — ACT).

Dimension	Score	Confidence	Evidence Count	Sources
PEP	58/100	moderate	54	2
Currency	75/100	moderate	358	2
Ownership	84/100	moderate	3,617	2
Trade	63/100	low	643	1
Social Unrest	25/100	low	8	1
Sanctions	79/100	high	98	7

2. PEP & Political Stability

Score: 58/100 | Confidence: moderate | Evidence: 54 items from 2 source(s)

Source: government_officials (16 records)

{"person": "Hijikata Hisamoto", "position": "Secretary of State of the Maison du Roi", "source_ref": "wikidata"}

{"person": "Jean Auguste Philibert Alexandre Lacordaire", "position": "engineer of the French Corps of Bridges and Roads", "source_ref": "wikidata"}

{"person": "Denis Eydoux", "position": "engineer of the French Corps of Bridges and Roads", "source_ref": "wikidata"}

Source: intel_ofac_sdn (38 records)

{"name": "DUMONT, Lionel", "type": "individual", "program": "SDGT"}

{"name": "DE GARIKOITZ ASPIAZU RUBINA, Miguel", "type": "individual", "program": "SDGT"}

{"name": "YARZA, Aitzol Iriondo", "type": "individual", "program": "SDGT"}

3. Currency & Monetary Risk

Score: 75/100 | Confidence: moderate | Evidence: 358 items from 2 source(s)

Source: world_bank_indicators (338 records)

{"indicator": "Exports of goods and services (current US$)", "year": 2025, "value": 1124107902931.06, "unit": null}

{"indicator": "Inflation, consumer prices (annual %)", "year": 2025, "value": 0.943770212469976, "unit": null}

{"indicator": "GDP growth (annual %)", "year": 2025, "value": 0.840949955479587, "unit": null}

Source: oecd_data (20 records)

{"indicator": "Inflation, consumer prices (annual %)", "year": 2024, "value": "1.99904942291463", "unit": null}

{"indicator": "Unemployment, total (% of total labor force) (modeled ILO estimate)", "year": 2024, "value": "7.4", "unit": null}

{"indicator": "Manufacturing, value added (% of GDP)", "year": 2024, "value": "9.56647520690692", "unit": null}

4. Ownership Landscape

Score: 84/100 | Confidence: moderate | Evidence: 3,617 items from 2 source(s)

Source: gleif_entities (2,000 records)

{"name": "NEMEA", "status": "ACTIVE", "category": "GENERAL"}

{"name": "NAJU", "status": "ACTIVE", "category": "GENERAL"}

{"name": "JAMES 2", "status": "ACTIVE", "category": "GENERAL"}

Source: corporate_ownership (1,617 records)

{"company": "Oracle France", "parent": "Oracle Corporation", "ticker": null, "industry": "publishing of application software"}

{"company": "OECD Development Centre", "parent": "Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development", "ticker": null, "industry": null}

{"company": "Sony (France)", "parent": "Sony Group", "ticker": null, "industry": "wholesale trade (business-to-business) of household appliances"}

5. Trade Flow Analysis

Score: 63/100 | Confidence: low | Evidence: 643 items from 1 source(s)

Source: trade_flows (643 records)

6. Social Unrest & Conflict

Score: 25/100 | Confidence: low | Evidence: 8 items from 1 source(s)

Source: intel_gdelt_articles (8 records)

{"title": "Les projets r\u00e9pressifs du gouvernement su\u00e9dois contre les migrants - Accents dEurope", "date": "2026-08-21 00:15:00+00:00", "domain": "rfi.fr", "country": "France"}

{"title": "B\u00e9arn\u00a0 : la pr\u00e9fecture dit non au m\u00e9thaniseur \u00e0 Pomps", "date": "2026-08-19 06:30:00+00:00", "domain": "sudouest.fr", "country": "France"}

{"title": "Sortie cin\u00e9 . Fjord : un drame nordique\u00a0gla\u00e7ant en toute bonne foi", "date": "2026-08-19 05:15:00+00:00", "domain": "leprogres.fr", "country": "France"}

7. Sanctions Exposure

Score: 79/100 | Confidence: high | Evidence: 98 items from 7 source(s)

Source: intel_ofac_sdn (38 records)

Source: sanctions_list (7 records)

Source: au_sanctions (8 records)

Source: ch_sanctions (8 records)

Source: eu_sanctions (15 records)

Source: uk_ofsi_sanctions (15 records)

Source: un_sanctions (7 records)

8. Composite Risk Score & Heat Map

Composite Score: 64.0/100
Risk Band: High — ACT

```
PEP ███████████ 58/100
Currency███████████████ 75/100
Owner ████████████████ 84/100
Trade ████████████ 63/100
Unrest █████ 25/100
Sanct. ███████████████ 79/100
```

9. Data Gaps & Confidence Statement

Trade: Single source only — confidence capped at Low.

Social Unrest: Single source only — confidence capped at Low.

10. Falsification Conditions

Any dimension with <3 source disciplines has confidence capped at Low.

If a data source has not refreshed within its declared update_frequency, it is marked stale and excluded.

If two independent sources contradict on a dimension, the dimension is held unscored until reconciled.

ACLED armed conflict data is at 0 rows (API blocked) — Social Unrest dimension relies on GDELT + signals only.

This report is falsified if France's risk profile changes materially before next assessment.

11. Methodology Appendix

Per ER-03 Methodology War Room (2026-08-17):

Six dimensions scored 0-100 with evidence from mapped data sources

Composite = weighted average (equal weights by default)

Confidence: High (≥3 sources), Moderate (2), Low (1)

Risk bands: Low (0-20), Elevated (21-40), Moderate (41-60), High (61-80), Critical (81-100)

---
Generated by geopolitical_report_generator_er03 | ER-03 All-Round Geopolitical Risk Assessment template
Forreast Strategic Intelligence — Montis Sapientia, Fluminis Vis.