ER-03 All-Round Geopolitical Risk Assessment: Mexico

Report ID: fafafae8
Date: 2026-08-25
Classification: Strategic Intelligence — Geopolitical Risk

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```
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FORREAST GEOPOLITICAL RISK SCORE: Mexico — 70.2/100
Dimensions: PEP [67] · Currency [75] · Ownership [84] · Trade [84] · Social Unrest [27] · Sanctions [84]
Risk level: High — ACT
Assessment date: 2026-08-25
═══════════════════════════════════════════
```

1. Executive Summary

This assessment evaluates geopolitical risk for Mexico across 6 of 6 dimensions. The composite Forreast Geopolitical Risk Score is 70.2/100 (High — ACT).

Dimension	Score	Confidence	Evidence Count	Sources
PEP	67/100	low	1,087	1
Currency	75/100	moderate	358	2
Ownership	84/100	moderate	2,002	2
Trade	84/100	moderate	44,170	2
Social Unrest	27/100	low	11	1
Sanctions	84/100	moderate	1,093	2

2. PEP & Political Stability

Score: 67/100 | Confidence: low | Evidence: 1,087 items from 1 source(s)

Source: intel_ofac_sdn (1,087 records)

{"name": "DISTRIBUIDORA IMPERIAL DE BAJA CALIFORNIA, S.A. DE C.V.", "type": "-0- ", "program": "SDNTK"}

{"name": "AMEZCUA CONTRERAS, Jose de Jesus", "type": "individual", "program": "SDNTK"}

{"name": "AMEZCUA CONTRERAS, Luis Ignacio", "type": "individual", "program": "SDNTK"}

3. Currency & Monetary Risk

Score: 75/100 | Confidence: moderate | Evidence: 358 items from 2 source(s)

Source: world_bank_indicators (338 records)

{"indicator": "Exports of goods and services (current US$)", "year": 2025, "value": 726556896246.645, "unit": null}

{"indicator": "Inflation, consumer prices (annual %)", "year": 2025, "value": 3.80668650726485, "unit": null}

{"indicator": "Manufacturing, value added (% of GDP)", "year": 2025, "value": 19.9756958186854, "unit": null}

Source: oecd_data (20 records)

{"indicator": "General government final consumption expenditure (% of GDP)", "year": 2024, "value": "11.6225557793018", "unit": null}

{"indicator": "Inflation, consumer prices (annual %)", "year": 2024, "value": "4.72225588452932", "unit": null}

{"indicator": "Unemployment, total (% of total labor force) (modeled ILO estimate)", "year": 2024, "value": "2.678", "unit": null}

4. Ownership Landscape

Score: 84/100 | Confidence: moderate | Evidence: 2,002 items from 2 source(s)

Source: gleif_entities (2,000 records)

{"name": "INDUSTRIAS VOIT SA DE CV", "status": "ISSUED", "category": "GENERAL"}

{"name": "CONTRATO DE FIDEICOMISO IRREVOCABLE DE ADMINISTRACI\u00d3N Y FUENTE DE PAGO NO. 1416", "status": "ISSUED", "category": "GENERAL"}

{"name": "COOPERATIVA INMOBILIARIA MONCA SC DE RL DE CV", "status": "ISSUED", "category": "GENERAL"}

Source: corporate_ownership (2 records)

{"company": "International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center", "parent": "CGIAR", "ticker": null, "industry": null}

{"company": "Direcci\u00f3n General de Radio, Televisi\u00f3n y Cinematograf\u00eda", "parent": "Secretariat of the Interior", "ticker": null, "industry": null}

5. Trade Flow Analysis

Score: 84/100 | Confidence: moderate | Evidence: 44,170 items from 2 source(s)

Source: un_comtrade_flows (43,527 records)

{"reporter": "Mexico", "partner": "World", "flow": "Export", "hs_desc": null, "value_usd": 665934159184.0, "year": 2025}

{"reporter": "Mexico", "partner": "United States", "flow": "Export", "hs_desc": "Commodities not specified according to kind", "value_usd": 29400306430.0, "year": 2024}

{"reporter": "Mexico", "partner": "United States", "flow": "Export", "hs_desc": "Commodities not specified according to kind", "value_usd": 28407470520.0, "year": 2025}

Source: trade_flows (643 records)

6. Social Unrest & Conflict

Score: 27/100 | Confidence: low | Evidence: 11 items from 1 source(s)

Source: intel_gdelt_articles (11 records)

{"title": "EU impone m\u00e1s sanciones contra Cuba ; tilda de subversivo y radical al Instituto Cubano de Amistad con los Pueblos", "date": "2026-08-21 00:15:00+00:00", "domain": "lajornadasanluis.com.mx", "country": "Mexico"}

{"title": "Morena en el Senado defiende a Claudia Sheinbaum ante descalificaciones infundadas", "date": "2026-08-21 00:15:00+00:00", "domain": "sdpnoticias.com", "country": "Mexico"}

{"title": "Armenta advierte conflicto de inter\u00e9s - Quadrat\u00edn Puebla", "date": "2026-08-20 23:15:00+00:00", "domain": "puebla.quadratin.com.mx", "country": "Mexico"}

7. Sanctions Exposure

Score: 84/100 | Confidence: moderate | Evidence: 1,093 items from 2 source(s)

Source: intel_ofac_sdn (1,087 records)

Source: sanctions_list (6 records)

8. Composite Risk Score & Heat Map

Composite Score: 70.2/100
Risk Band: High — ACT

```
PEP █████████████ 67/100
Currency███████████████ 75/100
Owner ████████████████ 84/100
Trade ████████████████ 84/100
Unrest █████ 27/100
Sanct. ████████████████ 84/100
```

9. Data Gaps & Confidence Statement

PEP: Single source only — confidence capped at Low.

Social Unrest: Single source only — confidence capped at Low.

10. Falsification Conditions

Any dimension with <3 source disciplines has confidence capped at Low.

If a data source has not refreshed within its declared update_frequency, it is marked stale and excluded.

If two independent sources contradict on a dimension, the dimension is held unscored until reconciled.

ACLED armed conflict data is at 0 rows (API blocked) — Social Unrest dimension relies on GDELT + signals only.

This report is falsified if Mexico's risk profile changes materially before next assessment.

11. Methodology Appendix

Per ER-03 Methodology War Room (2026-08-17):

Six dimensions scored 0-100 with evidence from mapped data sources

Composite = weighted average (equal weights by default)

Confidence: High (≥3 sources), Moderate (2), Low (1)

Risk bands: Low (0-20), Elevated (21-40), Moderate (41-60), High (61-80), Critical (81-100)

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