ER-03 All-Round Geopolitical Risk Assessment: Saudi Arabia

Report ID: b6b1eb9e
Date: 2026-08-25
Classification: Strategic Intelligence — Geopolitical Risk

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```
═══════════════════════════════════════════
FORREAST GEOPOLITICAL RISK SCORE: Saudi Arabia — 60.2/100
Dimensions: PEP [44] · Currency [57] · Ownership [84] · Trade [84] · Social Unrest [7] · Sanctions [85]
Risk level: High — ACT
Assessment date: 2026-08-25
═══════════════════════════════════════════
```

1. Executive Summary

This assessment evaluates geopolitical risk for Saudi Arabia across 6 of 6 dimensions. The composite Forreast Geopolitical Risk Score is 60.2/100 (High — ACT).

Dimension	Score	Confidence	Evidence Count	Sources
PEP	44/100	low	73	1
Currency	57/100	low	338	1
Ownership	84/100	moderate	2,006	2
Trade	84/100	moderate	68,231	2
Social Unrest	7/100	low	1	1
Sanctions	85/100	high	187	7

2. PEP & Political Stability

Score: 44/100 | Confidence: low | Evidence: 73 items from 1 source(s)

Source: intel_ofac_sdn (73 records)

{"name": "BIN LADIN, Usama bin Muhammad bin Awad", "type": "individual", "program": "SDGT"}

{"name": "HUSAYN, Zayn al-Abidin Muhammad", "type": "individual", "program": "SDGT"}

{"name": "AL-MUGHASSIL, Ahmad Ibrahim", "type": "individual", "program": "SDGT"}

3. Currency & Monetary Risk

Score: 57/100 | Confidence: low | Evidence: 338 items from 1 source(s)

Source: world_bank_indicators (338 records)

{"indicator": "Manufacturing, value added (% of GDP)", "year": 2025, "value": 15.8166504334519, "unit": null}

{"indicator": "Exports of goods and services (current US$)", "year": 2025, "value": 379825066666.667, "unit": null}

{"indicator": "Inflation, consumer prices (annual %)", "year": 2025, "value": 2.08420853585036, "unit": null}

4. Ownership Landscape

Score: 84/100 | Confidence: moderate | Evidence: 2,006 items from 2 source(s)

Source: gleif_entities (2,000 records)

{"name": "valued serfices company", "status": "ISSUED", "category": "GENERAL"}

{"name": "Sharekat Emdadat Jeddah Llmawad Alghedaeya", "status": "ISSUED", "category": "GENERAL"}

{"name": "\u0634\u0631\u0643\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u0646\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0627\u0644\u0645\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u062a\u0637\u0648\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062d\u062f\u0648\u062f\u0629", "status": "ISSUED", "category": "GENERAL"}

Source: corporate_ownership (6 records)

{"company": "Rotana Music Group", "parent": "Warner Music Group", "ticker": null, "industry": null}

{"company": "Rotana Music Group", "parent": "Universal Music Group", "ticker": null, "industry": null}

{"company": "The Saudi Pro League", "parent": "Saudi Football Federation", "ticker": null, "industry": null}

5. Trade Flow Analysis

Score: 84/100 | Confidence: moderate | Evidence: 68,231 items from 2 source(s)

Source: un_comtrade_flows (67,588 records)

{"reporter": "Saudi Arabia", "partner": "World", "flow": "Export", "hs_desc": null, "value_usd": 311992323328.17, "year": 2025}

{"reporter": "Saudi Arabia", "partner": "World", "flow": "Export", "hs_desc": null, "value_usd": 305499387356.915, "year": 2024}

{"reporter": "Saudi Arabia", "partner": "World", "flow": "Import", "hs_desc": null, "value_usd": 253286715134.617, "year": 2025}

Source: trade_flows (643 records)

6. Social Unrest & Conflict

Score: 7/100 | Confidence: low | Evidence: 1 items from 1 source(s)

Source: intel_gdelt_articles (1 records)

{"title": "\u062c\u0631\u064a\u062f\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0631\u064a\u0627\u0636 | \u0633\u0648\u0631\u064a\u0629 : \u0623\u062d\u0643\u0627\u0645 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0625\u0639\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0644\u0644\u0623\u0633\u062f \u0648\u0645\u0633\u0624\u0648\u0644\u064a\u0646 \u0623\u0645\u0646\u064a\u064a\u0646 \u0633\u0627\u0628\u0642\u064a\u0646", "date": "2026-08-12 02:30:00+00:00", "domain": "alriyadh.com", "country": "Saudi Arabia"}

7. Sanctions Exposure

Score: 85/100 | Confidence: high | Evidence: 187 items from 7 source(s)

Source: intel_ofac_sdn (73 records)

Source: sanctions_list (1 records)

Source: au_sanctions (15 records)

Source: ch_sanctions (21 records)

Source: eu_sanctions (23 records)

Source: uk_ofsi_sanctions (35 records)

Source: un_sanctions (19 records)

8. Composite Risk Score & Heat Map

Composite Score: 60.2/100
Risk Band: High — ACT

```
PEP ████████ 44/100
Currency███████████ 57/100
Owner ████████████████ 84/100
Trade ████████████████ 84/100
Unrest █ 7/100
Sanct. █████████████████ 85/100
```

9. Data Gaps & Confidence Statement

PEP: Single source only — confidence capped at Low.

Currency: Single source only — confidence capped at Low.

Social Unrest: Single source only — confidence capped at Low.

10. Falsification Conditions

Any dimension with <3 source disciplines has confidence capped at Low.

If a data source has not refreshed within its declared update_frequency, it is marked stale and excluded.

If two independent sources contradict on a dimension, the dimension is held unscored until reconciled.

ACLED armed conflict data is at 0 rows (API blocked) — Social Unrest dimension relies on GDELT + signals only.

This report is falsified if Saudi Arabia's risk profile changes materially before next assessment.

11. Methodology Appendix

Per ER-03 Methodology War Room (2026-08-17):

Six dimensions scored 0-100 with evidence from mapped data sources

Composite = weighted average (equal weights by default)

Confidence: High (≥3 sources), Moderate (2), Low (1)

Risk bands: Low (0-20), Elevated (21-40), Moderate (41-60), High (61-80), Critical (81-100)

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