ER-03 All-Round Geopolitical Risk Assessment: Turkey

Report ID: 84c4dfdd
Date: 2026-08-25
Classification: Strategic Intelligence — Geopolitical Risk

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```
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FORREAST GEOPOLITICAL RISK SCORE: Turkey — 73.3/100
Dimensions: PEP [74] · Currency [75] · Ownership [84] · Trade [63] · Social Unrest [52] · Sanctions [92]
Risk level: High — ACT
Assessment date: 2026-08-25
═══════════════════════════════════════════
```

1. Executive Summary

This assessment evaluates geopolitical risk for Turkey across 6 of 6 dimensions. The composite Forreast Geopolitical Risk Score is 73.3/100 (High — ACT).

Dimension	Score	Confidence	Evidence Count	Sources
PEP	74/100	moderate	318	2
Currency	75/100	moderate	358	2
Ownership	84/100	moderate	2,017	2
Trade	63/100	low	643	1
Social Unrest	52/100	moderate	27	2
Sanctions	92/100	high	413	7

2. PEP & Political Stability

Score: 74/100 | Confidence: moderate | Evidence: 318 items from 2 source(s)

Source: government_officials (20 records)

{"person": "Ernst Gottlieb Cautius", "position": "burgomaster", "source_ref": "wikidata"}

{"person": "Wilhelm Klut", "position": "burgomaster", "source_ref": "wikidata"}

{"person": "Felix Stiller", "position": "burgomaster", "source_ref": "wikidata"}

Source: intel_ofac_sdn (298 records)

{"name": "DUZCAN, Ceylan", "type": "individual", "program": "SDNTK"}

{"name": "YAKUT, Cumhur", "type": "individual", "program": "SDNTK"}

{"name": "YILMAZ, Adem", "type": "individual", "program": "SDGT"}

3. Currency & Monetary Risk

Score: 75/100 | Confidence: moderate | Evidence: 358 items from 2 source(s)

Source: world_bank_indicators (338 records)

{"indicator": "Manufacturing, value added (% of GDP)", "year": 2025, "value": null, "unit": null}

{"indicator": "Exports of goods and services (current US$)", "year": 2025, "value": 396923725496.326, "unit": null}

{"indicator": "Inflation, consumer prices (annual %)", "year": 2025, "value": 34.8811629820306, "unit": null}

Source: oecd_data (20 records)

{"indicator": "General government final consumption expenditure (% of GDP)", "year": 2024, "value": "14.4561600834409", "unit": null}

{"indicator": "Inflation, consumer prices (annual %)", "year": 2024, "value": "58.5064507300342", "unit": null}

{"indicator": "Unemployment, total (% of total labor force) (modeled ILO estimate)", "year": 2024, "value": "8.8", "unit": null}

4. Ownership Landscape

Score: 84/100 | Confidence: moderate | Evidence: 2,017 items from 2 source(s)

Source: gleif_entities (2,000 records)

{"name": "ANATOLIA GAYR\u0130MENKUL VE G\u0130R\u0130\u015e\u0130M SERMAYES\u0130 PORTF\u00d6Y Y\u00d6NET\u0130M\u0130 A.\u015e. BAHAR GAYR\u0130MENKUL YATIRIM FONU", "status": "ISSUED", "category": "FUND"}

{"name": "Z\u0130RAAT PORTF\u00d6Y T\u00dcRK\u0130YE VARLIK FONU \u0130\u015eT\u0130RAKLER\u0130 H\u0130SSE SENED\u0130 FONU (H\u0130SSE SENED\u0130 YO\u011eUN FON)", "status": "ISSUED", "category": "FUND"}

{"name": "Z\u0130RAAT PORTF\u00d6Y BIST 100 ENDEKS\u0130 MODEL PORTF\u00d6Y H\u0130SSE SENED\u0130 YO\u011eUN BORSA YATIRIM FONU", "status": "ISSUED", "category": "FUND"}

Source: corporate_ownership (17 records)

{"company": "archaeological excavations in Ephesos", "parent": "British Museum", "ticker": null, "industry": null}

{"company": "Statistical, Economic and Social Research and Training Centre for Islamic Countries", "parent": "Organisation of Islamic Cooperation", "ticker": null, "industry": null}

{"company": "archaeological excavations in Ephesos", "parent": "Austrian Archaeological Institute", "ticker": null, "industry": null}

5. Trade Flow Analysis

Score: 63/100 | Confidence: low | Evidence: 643 items from 1 source(s)

Source: trade_flows (643 records)

6. Social Unrest & Conflict

Score: 52/100 | Confidence: moderate | Evidence: 27 items from 2 source(s)

Source: intel_gdelt_articles (26 records)

{"title": "Muhalefetten Gazze kasab\u0131na T\u00fcrkiye tepkisi : \u0130srail mesaj\u0131 ald\u0131 Netanyahu zorda", "date": "2026-08-21 00:15:00+00:00", "domain": "turkiyegazetesi.com.tr", "country": "Turkey"}

{"title": "Bat\u0131 \u015eeriada \u0130srail bask\u0131nlar\u0131 ve yerle\u015fimci sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131", "date": "2026-08-20 00:15:00+00:00", "domain": "haberler.com", "country": "Turkey"}

{"title": "Temel Contada sendika d\u00fc\u015fmanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 raporland\u0131", "date": "2026-08-19 05:15:00+00:00", "domain": "birgun.net", "country": "Turkey"}

Source: signals (1 records)

{"type": "political_geographic", "title": "Israeli airstrikes hit Syria's Abu al-Duhur airbase, drawing Turkish condemnation (Aug 18)", "detected_at": "Eight Israeli airstrikes hit Syria's Abu al-Duhur airbase on August 18, 2026; state TV reported no casualties. Turkey condemned the strikes."}

7. Sanctions Exposure

Score: 92/100 | Confidence: high | Evidence: 413 items from 7 source(s)

Source: intel_ofac_sdn (298 records)

Source: sanctions_list (1 records)

Source: au_sanctions (7 records)

Source: ch_sanctions (44 records)

Source: eu_sanctions (22 records)

Source: uk_ofsi_sanctions (34 records)

Source: un_sanctions (7 records)

8. Composite Risk Score & Heat Map

Composite Score: 73.3/100
Risk Band: High — ACT

```
PEP ██████████████ 74/100
Currency███████████████ 75/100
Owner ████████████████ 84/100
Trade ████████████ 63/100
Unrest ██████████ 52/100
Sanct. ██████████████████ 92/100
```

9. Data Gaps & Confidence Statement

Trade: Single source only — confidence capped at Low.

10. Falsification Conditions

Any dimension with <3 source disciplines has confidence capped at Low.

If a data source has not refreshed within its declared update_frequency, it is marked stale and excluded.

If two independent sources contradict on a dimension, the dimension is held unscored until reconciled.

ACLED armed conflict data is at 0 rows (API blocked) — Social Unrest dimension relies on GDELT + signals only.

This report is falsified if Turkey's risk profile changes materially before next assessment.

11. Methodology Appendix

Per ER-03 Methodology War Room (2026-08-17):

Six dimensions scored 0-100 with evidence from mapped data sources

Composite = weighted average (equal weights by default)

Confidence: High (≥3 sources), Moderate (2), Low (1)

Risk bands: Low (0-20), Elevated (21-40), Moderate (41-60), High (61-80), Critical (81-100)

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