ER-03 All-Round Geopolitical Risk Assessment: Switzerland

Report ID: 0620e1e1
Date: 2026-08-25
Classification: Strategic Intelligence — Geopolitical Risk

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```
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FORREAST GEOPOLITICAL RISK SCORE: Switzerland — 59.0/100
Dimensions: PEP [40] · Currency [75] · Ownership [84] · Trade [63] · Social Unrest [13] · Sanctions [79]
Risk level: Moderate — ASSESS
Assessment date: 2026-08-25
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```

1. Executive Summary

This assessment evaluates geopolitical risk for Switzerland across 6 of 6 dimensions. The composite Forreast Geopolitical Risk Score is 59.0/100 (Moderate — ASSESS).

Dimension	Score	Confidence	Evidence Count	Sources
PEP	40/100	low	47	1
Currency	75/100	moderate	358	2
Ownership	84/100	moderate	2,068	2
Trade	63/100	low	643	1
Social Unrest	13/100	low	2	1
Sanctions	79/100	high	91	7

2. PEP & Political Stability

Score: 40/100 | Confidence: low | Evidence: 47 items from 1 source(s)

Source: intel_ofac_sdn (47 records)

{"name": "KOHAS AG", "type": "-0- ", "program": "NPWMD"}

{"name": "STEIGER, Jakob", "type": "individual", "program": "NPWMD"}

{"name": "GEIGES, Daniel", "type": "individual", "program": "NPWMD"}

3. Currency & Monetary Risk

Score: 75/100 | Confidence: moderate | Evidence: 358 items from 2 source(s)

Source: world_bank_indicators (338 records)

{"indicator": "Exports of goods and services (current US$)", "year": 2025, "value": 814503715316.446, "unit": null}

{"indicator": "Inflation, consumer prices (annual %)", "year": 2025, "value": 0.154376978290185, "unit": null}

{"indicator": "GDP growth (annual %)", "year": 2025, "value": 1.30007790958307, "unit": null}

Source: oecd_data (20 records)

{"indicator": "Inflation, consumer prices (annual %)", "year": 2024, "value": "1.06234041976595", "unit": null}

{"indicator": "Unemployment, total (% of total labor force) (modeled ILO estimate)", "year": 2024, "value": "4.343", "unit": null}

{"indicator": "Manufacturing, value added (% of GDP)", "year": 2024, "value": "19.0664242883381", "unit": null}

4. Ownership Landscape

Score: 84/100 | Confidence: moderate | Evidence: 2,068 items from 2 source(s)

Source: gleif_entities (2,000 records)

{"name": "Beet AG", "status": "ISSUED", "category": "GENERAL"}

{"name": "Galenos AG", "status": "ISSUED", "category": "GENERAL"}

{"name": "Derfid SA", "status": "ISSUED", "category": "GENERAL"}

Source: corporate_ownership (68 records)

{"company": "Institute for Biomedical Engineering", "parent": "ETH Zurich", "ticker": null, "industry": null}

{"company": "Q116950379", "parent": "ETH Zurich", "ticker": null, "industry": null}

{"company": "Q124809372", "parent": "ETH Zurich", "ticker": null, "industry": null}

5. Trade Flow Analysis

Score: 63/100 | Confidence: low | Evidence: 643 items from 1 source(s)

Source: trade_flows (643 records)

6. Social Unrest & Conflict

Score: 13/100 | Confidence: low | Evidence: 2 items from 1 source(s)

Source: intel_gdelt_articles (2 records)

{"title": "Malaysia Stock Market May Reverse Wednesday Losses", "date": "2026-08-20 00:15:00+00:00", "domain": "finanzen.ch", "country": "Switzerland"}

{"title": "Japan Stock Market Due For Rebound On Thursday", "date": "2026-08-20 00:15:00+00:00", "domain": "finanzen.ch", "country": "Switzerland"}

7. Sanctions Exposure

Score: 79/100 | Confidence: high | Evidence: 91 items from 7 source(s)

Source: intel_ofac_sdn (47 records)

Source: sanctions_list (1 records)

Source: au_sanctions (6 records)

Source: ch_sanctions (7 records)

Source: eu_sanctions (10 records)

Source: uk_ofsi_sanctions (15 records)

Source: un_sanctions (5 records)

8. Composite Risk Score & Heat Map

Composite Score: 59.0/100
Risk Band: Moderate — ASSESS

```
PEP ████████ 40/100
Currency███████████████ 75/100
Owner ████████████████ 84/100
Trade ████████████ 63/100
Unrest ██ 13/100
Sanct. ███████████████ 79/100
```

9. Data Gaps & Confidence Statement

PEP: Single source only — confidence capped at Low.

Trade: Single source only — confidence capped at Low.

Social Unrest: Single source only — confidence capped at Low.

10. Falsification Conditions

Any dimension with <3 source disciplines has confidence capped at Low.

If a data source has not refreshed within its declared update_frequency, it is marked stale and excluded.

If two independent sources contradict on a dimension, the dimension is held unscored until reconciled.

ACLED armed conflict data is at 0 rows (API blocked) — Social Unrest dimension relies on GDELT + signals only.

This report is falsified if Switzerland's risk profile changes materially before next assessment.

11. Methodology Appendix

Per ER-03 Methodology War Room (2026-08-17):

Six dimensions scored 0-100 with evidence from mapped data sources

Composite = weighted average (equal weights by default)

Confidence: High (≥3 sources), Moderate (2), Low (1)

Risk bands: Low (0-20), Elevated (21-40), Moderate (41-60), High (61-80), Critical (81-100)

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