ER-03 All-Round Geopolitical Risk Assessment: India

Report ID: 24ad640f
Date: 2026-08-25
Classification: Strategic Intelligence — Geopolitical Risk

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```
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FORREAST GEOPOLITICAL RISK SCORE: India — 69.8/100
Dimensions: PEP [69] · Currency [57] · Ownership [84] · Trade [84] · Social Unrest [39] · Sanctions [86]
Risk level: High — ACT
Assessment date: 2026-08-25
═══════════════════════════════════════════
```

1. Executive Summary

This assessment evaluates geopolitical risk for India across 6 of 6 dimensions. The composite Forreast Geopolitical Risk Score is 69.8/100 (High — ACT).

Dimension	Score	Confidence	Evidence Count	Sources
PEP	69/100	moderate	181	2
Currency	57/100	low	338	1
Ownership	84/100	moderate	2,041	2
Trade	84/100	moderate	72,728	2
Social Unrest	39/100	low	42	1
Sanctions	86/100	high	214	7

2. PEP & Political Stability

Score: 69/100 | Confidence: moderate | Evidence: 181 items from 2 source(s)

Source: government_officials (20 records)

{"person": "Swaran Singh", "position": "Minister of External Affairs", "source_ref": "wikidata"}

{"person": "Swaran Singh", "position": "Minister of External Affairs", "source_ref": "wikidata"}

{"person": "K. Natwar Singh", "position": "Minister of External Affairs", "source_ref": "wikidata"}

Source: intel_ofac_sdn (161 records)

{"name": "YASIN, Abdul Rahman", "type": "individual", "program": "SDGT"}

{"name": "IBRAHIM, Dawood", "type": "individual", "program": "SDNTK] [SDGT"}

{"name": "BAHAZIQ, Mahmoud Mohammad Ahmed", "type": "individual", "program": "SDGT"}

3. Currency & Monetary Risk

Score: 57/100 | Confidence: low | Evidence: 338 items from 1 source(s)

Source: world_bank_indicators (338 records)

{"indicator": "Exports of goods and services (current US$)", "year": 2025, "value": 880740846621.545, "unit": null}

{"indicator": "Inflation, consumer prices (annual %)", "year": 2025, "value": 2.39884954182294, "unit": null}

{"indicator": "GDP growth (annual %)", "year": 2025, "value": 7.56666179284244, "unit": null}

4. Ownership Landscape

Score: 84/100 | Confidence: moderate | Evidence: 2,041 items from 2 source(s)

Source: gleif_entities (2,000 records)

{"name": "POORAN KANWAR", "status": "ISSUED", "category": "SOLE_PROPRIETOR"}

{"name": "CAWT GLOBAL MANAGERS (IFSC) PRIVATE LIMITED", "status": "ISSUED", "category": "GENERAL"}

{"name": "SUDARSHAN SINGH", "status": "ISSUED", "category": "SOLE_PROPRIETOR"}

Source: corporate_ownership (41 records)

{"company": "YMCA Vivekananda Road", "parent": "World Alliance of YMCAs", "ticker": null, "industry": null}

{"company": "YMCA College Street", "parent": "World Alliance of YMCAs", "ticker": null, "industry": null}

{"company": "Foundation of SAARC Writers and Literature", "parent": "South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation", "ticker": null, "industry": null}

5. Trade Flow Analysis

Score: 84/100 | Confidence: moderate | Evidence: 72,728 items from 2 source(s)

Source: un_comtrade_flows (72,085 records)

{"reporter": "India", "partner": "World", "flow": "Export", "hs_desc": null, "value_usd": 434435484213.94, "year": 2024}

{"reporter": "India", "partner": "United States", "flow": "Export", "hs_desc": null, "value_usd": 92570077496.315, "year": 2025}

{"reporter": "India", "partner": "Saudi Arabia", "flow": "Import", "hs_desc": "Mineral fuels, mineral oils and products of their distillation; bituminous substances; mineral waxes", "value_usd": 22832818063.211, "year": 2025}

Source: trade_flows (643 records)

6. Social Unrest & Conflict

Score: 39/100 | Confidence: low | Evidence: 42 items from 1 source(s)

Source: intel_gdelt_articles (42 records)

{"title": "US sanctions 10 individuals in Hezbollah cash network , redesignates group as Iranian proxy", "date": "2026-08-21 00:15:00+00:00", "domain": "news.webindia123.com", "country": "India"}

{"title": "Trump says US has draconian sanctions ready for Iran ; claims Hormuz naval blockade 100 % successful", "date": "2026-08-20 00:15:00+00:00", "domain": "aninews.in", "country": "India"}

{"title": "Trump announces most crushing economic operation ever against Iran , warns countries aiding it of tremendous consequences", "date": "2026-08-20 00:15:00+00:00", "domain": "aninews.in", "country": "India"}

7. Sanctions Exposure

Score: 86/100 | Confidence: high | Evidence: 214 items from 7 source(s)

Source: intel_ofac_sdn (161 records)

Source: sanctions_list (6 records)

Source: au_sanctions (2 records)

Source: ch_sanctions (12 records)

Source: eu_sanctions (8 records)

Source: uk_ofsi_sanctions (23 records)

Source: un_sanctions (2 records)

8. Composite Risk Score & Heat Map

Composite Score: 69.8/100
Risk Band: High — ACT

```
PEP █████████████ 69/100
Currency███████████ 57/100
Owner ████████████████ 84/100
Trade ████████████████ 84/100
Unrest ███████ 39/100
Sanct. █████████████████ 86/100
```

9. Data Gaps & Confidence Statement

Currency: Single source only — confidence capped at Low.

Social Unrest: Single source only — confidence capped at Low.

10. Falsification Conditions

Any dimension with <3 source disciplines has confidence capped at Low.

If a data source has not refreshed within its declared update_frequency, it is marked stale and excluded.

If two independent sources contradict on a dimension, the dimension is held unscored until reconciled.

ACLED armed conflict data is at 0 rows (API blocked) — Social Unrest dimension relies on GDELT + signals only.

This report is falsified if India's risk profile changes materially before next assessment.

11. Methodology Appendix

Per ER-03 Methodology War Room (2026-08-17):

Six dimensions scored 0-100 with evidence from mapped data sources

Composite = weighted average (equal weights by default)

Confidence: High (≥3 sources), Moderate (2), Low (1)

Risk bands: Low (0-20), Elevated (21-40), Moderate (41-60), High (61-80), Critical (81-100)

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